Mike Clay, a senior fantasy football analyst for ESPN, highlights key insights for Fantasy Football 2025 and encourages players to use tools like the Mock Draft Trophy to stay updated on his latest predictions throughout the season. His projections, which contribute to ESPN’s fantasy football game and various podcasts, reveal a notable trend: players who have low touchdown totals despite significant offensive opportunities often experience a substantial rebound the following season.
Between 2011 and 2023, there were 169 cases where wide receivers or tight ends had fewer than five touchdowns with over 50 touches but then maintained or exceeded that touch volume the next year. Impressively, 67.5% of these players scored more touchdowns in their subsequent season. Among a subset of 48 players with fewer than three touchdowns initially, over 81% saw improved touchdown production the following year. This trend holds true for running backs as well; of 45 backs with over 200 touches but fewer than seven touchdowns, 80% scored more the next season, with an average second-year touchdown total of 9.3.
The article introduces “expected touchdowns” (XTD), a metric that estimates a player’s touchdown opportunities based on league averages, stressing that players with low touchdown output but consistent usage are likely to see increased scoring in the coming season.
Clay provides detailed projections for several notable players expected to bounce back in 2025, including:
– Trey McBride (TE, Arizona Cardinals): From 3 touchdowns in 2024 to a projected 6 in 2025, despite leading tight ends in expected TDs but scoring low last year.
– George Pickens (WR, Dallas Cowboys): Expected to more than double his touchdowns from 3 to 8, aided by higher red-zone target volume.
– Roma Odunze (WR, Chicago Bears): Predicted to improve from 3 to 7 touchdowns thanks to better quarterback play and increased efficiency.
– Travis Kelce (TE, Kansas City Chiefs): Despite a dip to 3 touchdowns in 2024, projected to bounce back to 5 due to sustained high involvement.
– Jake Ferguson (TE, Dallas Cowboys): After zero touchdowns last season with significant targets, expected to score 3 in 2025.
– Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars): Projected to double his touchdowns from 2 to 4 with continued involvement in goal-line carries.
– Jalen Waddle (WR, Miami Dolphins): Predicted to increase from 2 to 5 touchdowns, based on historical performance and red-zone opportunities.
– TJ Hockenson (TE, Minnesota Vikings): Despite no touchdowns in 2024, expected to score 4 in 2025, showing signs of a quick turnaround.
– Hunter Henry (TE, New England Patriots): Seen rebounding from 2 touchdowns to 5, supported by strong target share and comeback potential.
The report highlights how players with unusual touchdown droughts, when paired with consistent playing time, are poised for a significant uptick in scoring next season.
Fan Take: This analysis is crucial for NFL fans and fantasy football players alike, revealing how touchdown production can regress to the mean and affect player valuations. It underscores the dynamic nature of player performance and offers a strategic edge by identifying likely breakout candidates for the upcoming season.
