With the All-Star break just a few days away, one of the last key decisions to be made for the 2025 Midsummer Classic is choosing the starting pitcher. On the American League side, the decision seems straightforward with Tiger ace Tarix Kabal, the reigning monarch winner, leading the charge.
In the National League, however, it’s a tougher call between two standout pitchers who could well dominate the season’s competition. Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, Pirates’ young star Paul Skens, who started the All-Star Game previously, is a strong candidate to start again. But he’s facing stiff competition from Phillies’ veteran workhorse ace Zack Wheeler.
While it’s still possible that another pitcher might clinch the NL Cy Young award this season, the current frontrunners are these two, as supported by BetMGM’s odds. They’re nearly tied, with Skens favored slightly due to his popularity among bettors.
Looking closely at their stats highlights just how tight the race is. (FWAR refers to Fangraphs WAR, which incorporates FIP, while BWAR is Baseball Reference’s WAR version.)
Paul Skens’ stats: 4-7 record, 1.94 ERA, 220 ERA+, 0.92 WHIP, 2.37 FIP, 125 strikeouts, 30 walks, 116 innings pitched, 1 complete game, 3.9 FWAR, 4.8 BWAR.
Though a pitcher’s win-loss record traditionally influenced Cy Young voting, this metric has lessened in importance over time. Still, it could sway some votes toward Wheeler, given that the rest of their numbers are fairly even.
One factor to consider is Skens’ workload. Last season, he threw 27 innings in Triple-A Indianapolis before pitching 133 innings with the Pirates in the majors. Increasing his innings by 15-20 is reasonable but ambitious, especially if the Pirates push deeper into September competition.
Skens is capable of Cy Young-worthy performance across 180 innings; for context, Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young in 2021 with 167 innings. That year, Wheeler was second, pitching 213 innings and outperforming Burnes in BWAR (7.5 to 5.3).
The question remains whether Wheeler can surpass this workload challenge.
Zack Wheeler’s stats: 9-3 record, 2.17 ERA, 196 ERA+, 0.85 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 148 strikeouts, 25 walks, 116 innings pitched, 1 complete game, 3.8 FWAR, 4.8 BWAR.
Wheeler has finished second in Cy Young voting twice, each time surpassing 200 innings. He’s poised to hit that mark again, and could join the ranks of Gerrit Cole (2023 AL) and Chris Sale (2024 NL) by finally winning the award after years as an underrated contender.
There may be subconscious bias among voters, given Wheeler is 35 years old; some may feel compelled to vote for him as this could be his final shot.
Currently, Wheeler leads the league in strikeouts, WHIP, and strikeout rate, while limiting hits most effectively. Skens edges Wheeler in ERA and ERA+, with minimal home runs allowed. They are virtually tied in WAR metrics, within the margin of error.
Wheeler has the advantage in innings pitched and strikeouts, contributing to a better win-loss record and potentially benefiting from a “lifetime achievement” sentiment among voters. Although Skens is a national star beyond baseball, it’s unclear how much this influences the 30 BBWAA voters.
While Wheeler might have the edge, the ongoing competition promises an exciting season and a thrilling finish to the Cy Young race—a true “barn burner” in baseball terms.
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Fan Take: This tight Cy Young race between a rising star and a seasoned veteran adds a compelling narrative to the 2025 season, showing the dynamic tension between emerging talent and experienced prowess. Baseball fans should pay close attention, as this duel not only highlights elite pitching but also symbolizes the sport’s evolving landscape and deepening competition.
