SAN FRANCISCO — Four days into Super Bowl week, the New England Patriots are already staring at two high-profile snubs.
It came out Thursday that neither Bill Belichick nor Robert Kraft received votes for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2026 class — a development that will spark debate for months. Critics point to a flawed selection system that pits senior-committee nominees (often former players) against coaches and contributors, while others suspect lingering punishment for Spygate or a broader bias against the Patriots. Pick your explanation, but this moment also looks like the start of a political obstacle that could complicate another, unavoidable case: Tom Brady’s path to the Hall.
Brady is set to be eligible in 2028 and is widely expected to be a shoo-in for induction — likely unanimously, though the Hall does not disclose unanimous votes. If something unexpected happens, some voters might step aside or otherwise react, but for now his candidacy looks secure, so there’s no need to re-litigate whether he belongs — he almost certainly does.
In recent days the reactions ranged from joking to pointed. Brady, in a playful aside to Colin Cowherd, suggested former Patriots might be drawing more scrutiny than others. Rob Gronkowski joked that Brady might not make it until a later ballot. Terrell Owens argued publicly that if Belichick and Kraft can’t get immediate enshrinement, Brady shouldn’t either — a line of reasoning he presented more as a logical consistency argument than provocation.
Owens’ point centers on fairness, but it overlooks how differently these candidates were considered. A major problem is the Hall’s opaque voting process: the senior committee submits a small slate that competes against coach and contributor slots, and the media has little visibility into how individual voters cast ballots. The lack of transparency fuels conspiracy theories, but several voters told reporters this year’s outcome was more the result of structural quirks and circumstance than a coordinated vendetta.
Here’s what happened mathematically: 50 Hall voters each could select three of five senior-committee finalists — Belichick (coach), Kraft (contributor) and three former players. That produces up to 150 total senior-committee votes; with a 40-vote threshold needed for election, Roger Craig reached the mark and was the only senior-committee inductee. That left as many as 110 votes to be split among the remaining four candidates, making it difficult for anyone else to reach 40, especially if some voters assumed Belichick or Kraft would make it and used votes elsewhere. Many voters viewed this as a design flaw rather than evidence of intentional targeting. Kraft’s track record — he was previously a finalist and only resurfaced in 2026 — also suggests his case wasn’t viewed as a guaranteed one-shot election.
Some voters did point to Spygate as a factor in how they cast ballots for Belichick and Kraft, but the broader picture supports a more mundane explanation: a crowded, constrained voting pool and an election format that can produce surprising results.
Turning to Brady: his situation is structurally different. He will appear on the Modern Era players ballot, where voters can select up to five candidates. That format removes the specific three-of-five squeeze that hamstrung the senior-committee candidates. Brady’s career résumé — including a long run of success after Deflategate and a Super Bowl win with Tampa Bay — is far larger than almost any modern-era nominee, so barring unforeseen issues he should be an easy first-ballot choice.
Even the Deflategate episode is an imperfect comparator. A four-game suspension or questions about cooperation haven’t historically barred players from first-ballot induction: Julius Peppers was elected as a first-ballot player despite a four-game suspension early in his career, and Brett Favre was still a first-ballot Hall of Famer despite the NFL fining him for not fully cooperating in a separate investigation. Deflategate became a footnote in the second half of Brady’s career — he played six more seasons afterward, won three more Super Bowls overall, captured another MVP, and piled up prodigious passing totals. His Tampa Bay title came entirely apart from New England, further separating his legacy from the coaching and ownership controversies tied to the Patriots.
In short: Belichick and Kraft’s misses highlight flaws in the Hall’s selection structure and transparency, but they don’t meaningfully alter the trajectory of Brady’s inevitable induction. Arguing otherwise mostly wastes energy.
Fan Take: This matters because Hall of Fame decisions shape how NFL history is remembered — and when the process looks arbitrary, it undermines confidence in the honors. If the Hall won’t reform its opaque, uneven voting rules, expect more controversy and fewer clear answers about who really belongs in Canton.
