Manchester City hasn’t enjoyed a flawless start this season, but with three wins in the Premier League and a 2-0 victory against Porto to launch their Champions League journey, manager Enzo Maresca surely finds some satisfaction in their early results.
However, their perfect Premier League record will face a significant challenge this Sunday as Maresca prepares for his initial Manchester derby at Old Trafford.
Meanwhile, Manchester United has had an inconsistent beginning, recently conceding a last-minute equalizer to Everton, leaving them with just four points.
On a brighter note, they celebrated a dominant 4-0 win against Sabah in their first Champions League match since December 2023, with goals from Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Benjamin Sesko, and Lisandro Martinez.
As these two English football giants prepare to clash, the question remains: who will emerge victorious in this historic rivalry?
Let’s delve into the upcoming matchup with insights from Opta.
Wayne Rooney’s overhead kick in the Manchester derby never loses its charm.
@ManUtd pic.twitter.com/GT0CdZpnrB
— Premier League (@premierleague) September 10, 2026
What to expect?
The Opta supercomputer slightly favors City in this matchup, giving them a 45.1% chance of winning compared to United’s 30.6%, with 24.3% of simulations predicting a draw.
As per our 2026-27 season forecasts, City holds a 26.7% chance of toppling Arsenal, who remain the title favorites at 55.2%.
United, conversely, is given only a 2.2% chance of clinching the title and a 26% probability of making it into the Champions League.
In last season’s corresponding fixture, United triumphed 2-0, but they haven’t achieved back-to-back home wins against City since Alex Ferguson’s era, with three victories from 2008-09 to 2010-11.
City has struggled recently in these encounters, winning just one of the last four Premier League meetings (D1 L2) after a run of five wins in the previous six (L1).
Carrick aims to break a 113-year derby drought
Michael Carrick’s return to the United bench in January saw him facing City in his first Premier League match at Old Trafford.
With goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu, Carrick secured a confident 2-0 victory and could become just the third United manager to win both of his first two league games against City, following A.H. Albut in 1895 and John Bentley in 1913.
Since Carrick’s return, United has won nine out of ten home league games (L1), netting at least two goals in each win.
The team has clinched three straight victories, albeit while conceding two goals in each match, a trend they last saw in home league games back in January 1972.
Throughout this season, United’s attack has been fueled by standout performances from players like Mbeumo and Fernandes, although their defensive organization has left much to be desired.
In the opening three rounds of the Premier League, United recorded the highest number of shots (68) and expected goals (7.3 xG) in the league, alongside matching City with 19 shots on target.
However, they have allowed two goals in every Premier League match this season— a rare occurrence for the club, seen only in three previous league campaigns: 1926-27, 1930-31, and 1969-70.
2 – For just the second time in the last 50 years, Manchester United has conceded 2+ goals in each of their first three league games of a season, alongside 2020-21.
Defensive issues abound. pic.twitter.com/B2Dk6Ioxkq
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 6, 2026
With only four points from encounters against Hull City, Ipswich Town, and Everton, United’s performance has been lackluster so far. To truly contend for the Premier League title, they must improve their defensive record.
Many were surprised that the Red Devils did not make major changes to their defense during the transfer window, and Luke Shaw may soon make his 300th appearance for United.
The left-back has started 41 consecutive Premier League games, with Harry Maguire being the last outfield player with a longer streak (72 games from August 2019 to May 2021).
Maresca seeks a defining result
If successful, City would win their first four Premier League matches for the seventh time, setting a record for the most such starts by any club in history (currently tied at six with Chelsea).
Historically, they’ve only converted this start into a title win twice in the past six occasions (2011-12 and 2023-24).
Autumn is here. pic.twitter.com/A75VwBvadh
— Manchester City (@ManCity) September 10, 2026
City faced difficulties during their last match against Coventry, with goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma stepping up with crucial saves in the second half to secure the points.
However, the team showcased their strength in their match against Porto, where they dominated the expected goals (xG) with a score of 2.32 to 0.28, not allowing their opponents a single shot in the first half—the first time that occurred in 156 first halves since Opta began recording data in the Champions League in 2003-04.
Teenage midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi garnered rave reviews for his display, while Enzo Fernandez played a full 90 minutes and provided an assist after being unexpectedly included in the starting squad against Coventry due to Nico O’Reilly’s injury.
With new players still adjusting, Maresca understands the significance of a win at Old Trafford.
Though he has a mixed history against United as a manager, having secured one win, one draw, and one loss against them while with Chelsea—only managing a win at Stamford Bridge—he knows victory can set the tone for his City tenure.
Previous City managers like Pep Guardiola and Manuel Pellegrini both won their first Premier League derby against United, a feat achieved by only two of the last nine City coaches, Sven-Goran Eriksson and Kevin Keegan.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester United – Marcus Rashford
Rashford has scored in his last two Premier League outings against City, once as a Red Devil and once while playing for Aston Villa in 2024 and 2025 respectively. He has netted six goals against City in his career, only scoring more against Leicester (eight) and Liverpool (seven).
Manchester City – Erling Haaland
Haaland netted a goal in City’s last league game and followed it with a brace against Porto.
Our third-highest goalscorer of all time. pic.twitter.com/kQ2t2vkbIV
— Manchester City (@ManCity) September 9, 2026
Excited for this derby, Haaland boasts a remarkable record against United, having scored eight goals in seven Premier League matches, including a hat-trick in his first meeting in 2022. While only two of his goals against City have come at Old Trafford, City has never lost when he has found the net.
Fan Take: This Manchester derby represents more than just a sports event; it’s a pivotal moment that could shape the fortunes of both clubs for the rest of the season. For soccer fans, the outcome could impact title races and Champions League aspirations, making it a must-watch spectacle in the world of football.
Source: www.soccernews.com
