It was an all-chalk US Open semifinal, featuring the four best players in the world. Then Aryna Sabalenka showed just how far the distance between No. 1 and No. 3 can be.
Facing a familiar foe in Jessica Pegula, Sabalenka pushed the top-ranked American around in a 7-5, 6-2 win to reach her fourth straight final at Flushing Meadows. It is also the third straight year the defending champion has ended Pegula’s US Open campaign.
Advertisement
Sabalenka will face either No. 2 Elena Rybakina or No. 4 Coco Gauff in the final on Saturday, looking for a US Open three-peat.
Here’s how Sabalenka’s past three finals in New York have gone:
2023: Loss vs. Coco Gauff, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
2024: Win vs. Jessica Pegula, 7-5, 7-5
2025: Win vs. Amanda Anisimova, 6-3, 7-6
Sabalenka has also reached the final of the past four Australian Opens, winning two of them. No other player in the history of tennis, man or woman, has reached eight straight Grand Slam hardcourt finals, per veteran tennis journalist Christopher Clarey.
If Sabalenka matches her form from Thursday, it’s hard to see a world in which she isn’t hoisting another trophy. It’s not as if Pegula played a bad match — she was far more precise with her first serve compared to her quarterfinal match against Emma Navarro and did a decent job of hanging with Sabalenka at the baseline early on.
Advertisement
However, there was simply a different magnitude of power on the other side of the court. Sabalenka had more unforced errors, but that was all in service of going for high-risk, high-reward shots that paid out more and more as the match went on.
Sabalenka finished the match with 29 winners to Pegula’s 12, plus seven aces. Pegula landed 41-of-60 first serves, but it was those missed 19 where the match was won. Sabalenka won 14 of those 19 second-serve points, including six outright winners.
The two players stayed on serve for the first 11 games, then the match turned into an outright pummeling. As Pegula told reporters after the match:
“I don’t know who pissed her off today, but she… [trails off] Hopefully it wasn’t me, totally, but might’ve been, I don’t know. She played insane. She played super high-level. Honestly, I don’t really know if there was much I could do today.”
Sabalenka showed frustration early on after leaving some power shots long, but it was Pegula, usually one of the steadiest players on tour, spiking her racket after leaving a difficult ball in the net in the penultimate game.
Advertisement
The No. 1 ranking is still out of reach for Aryna Sabalenka, for now
Sabalenka did all of this a day after officially losing her No. 1 ranking.
It does not matter how the next two days go, Rybakina will be the top player in the WTA rankings. She clinched that status simply by reaching the semifinal.
It’s an unusual situation, but that’s just how tennis rankings points work. Sabalenka entered this US Open as the No. 1 partially because of the 2,000 points she earned by winning last year’s US Open, hence she had 2,000 points to defend and none to gain. Meanwhile, Rybakina reached only the fourth round last year and had plenty of room to improve off her 240 points from that performance.
Advertisement
What Sabalenka can do, rankings-wise, is put major pressure on Rybakina for that ranking over the next few months. Rybakina didn’t do much at least year’s US Open, but she has 3,500 points combined from her titles at the WTA Finals and this year’s Australian Open.
Sabalenka’s current run as No. 1 will end after 99 weeks, the sixth-longest reign in WTA history. Her next run might not be too far away if she wins Saturday.
How many more Grand Slam chances will Jessica Pegula get?
It’s hard to think of a world where Pegula wins that match, when Sabalenka is playing at that level. A high-floor ran into a high-ceiling player who was right at that ceiling, unleashing some of the hardest groundstrokes and serves on tour.
Advertisement
Pegula didn’t think of much her chances while speaking with reporters:
“With the way she played today, I think she would have beaten anyone. I’m not 100% sure, obviously, but I do think she probably would have beaten 99% of the tour.”
Pegula has had a great career, going from late-bloomer to a legitimate top 5 player. Her 50 wins lead the WTA this year, along with titles in Dubai and Charleston.
However, she remains the only player in the current top 6 without a Grand Slam to her name, at 32 years old. She ran into a buzzsaw on Thursday and that’s basically been one of her two outcomes in the majors since she became a regular in the top 10. A listless exit in the early rounds, or a buzzsaw in the later rounds. She has fallen to Sabalenka in each of the past three US Opens, twice in the semifinals and once in the final. She got taken out by Rybakina in the Australian Open and Gauff at Wimbledon this year.
This isn’t a position you want to be in when you don’t know how many more years of great tennis you have ahead of you. However, as Alexander Zverev showed at Roland-Garros this year, sometimes the draw can align in a way you should never expect but can certainly welcome.
Advertisement
For now, though, it will be only multi-time Grand Slam winners in the US Open women’s final.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
