Last Monday in Tallahassee, Florida State forced four turnovers but still failed to cover as a 3-point underdog. The Seminoles fell 27–24 to SMU, which makes this a push for the column — though anyone who grabbed +3.5 later probably won their ticket. It felt great to be sweating football bets again.
I don’t throw out picks lightly — every selection goes through a review with fellow handicappers, oddsmakers and trusted betting colleagues. Successful bettors understand the how, what and why, and that’s the approach I take here. This won’t be a spot for dozens of plays or long parlays; these are the wagers I like and back with my own money. Let’s get to the picks.
(2026 Record: 1-2-1, -1.2 units)
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The Owls were embarrassed 66–21 by Florida last week, but they still moved the ball — totaling 396 yards — which is worthwhile against an SEC defense. Facing Navy should be much easier; FAU’s veteran QB Caden Veltkamp gives me confidence that the Owls can pull an upset at home.
Sammy P’s Pick: FIU (+5)
I’m a big fan of Minnesota this year. They return their head coach, both coordinators and their starting QB, plus Anthony Smith — last season’s Big Ten sack leader — is back. Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor lit up ULM with 354 yards and four TDs, but now he meets a legitimate defense anchored by Smith.
Sammy P’s Pick: Minnesota (+1.5)
After rolling East Carolina, Alabama travels to Lexington, and freshman QB Keelon Russell gets his first college road start. He made plays on the ground against ECU (averaging 6.6 yards per carry), but Kentucky won’t allow that level of improvisation; if UK keeps Russell in the pocket, they can cover a large spread.
Sammy P’s Pick: Kentucky (+10.5)
I might get a look from my FOX Chicago bosses for this one, but the Bears look wildly overvalued in futures markets given the defensive questions. The Ben Johnson–Caleb Williams tandem is intriguing, but the prices are suspect — I’ll take Carolina getting a full field goal at home and fade the hype.
Sammy P’s Pick: Panthers (+3)
The Packers also feel overrated. A key defensive force won’t be available for weeks, and I’ve never been sold on Jordan Love as the long-term answer. Meanwhile, Minnesota brings back most of a top-10 defense and now has Kyler Murray running an offense with plenty of weapons and a veteran backfield. Don’t forget the Vikings won nine games last year — now they have a quarterback.
Sammy P’s Pick: Vikings (-1.5)
Fan Take: These picks matter to NFL fans because early-season lines and team evaluations can shape public perception and futures markets — spotting value now can pay off later. If bettors collectively see through inflated expectations, it could temper runaway hype and lead to a more measured outlook on title contenders.
Source: www.foxsports.com
