For the 19th year running, underdogs managed to cover the Week 1 point spread in at least six games, finishing the opening weekend 7-9 ATS.
So how did my three underdog picks fare? Like a vintage lemon: they gave up 126 points combined, turned the ball over nine times and ended up with a minus-52 scoring margin.
No sugarcoating that mess. I’ll fall back on the usual platitudes — “the NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint,” “there’s nowhere to go but up,” “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” — and pivot to my Week 2 underdog plays.
First, a quick caveat: this is not me endorsing the 2026 New York Jets for the season. I recognize their 23-10 road victory came against a Titans team that has lost 47 of its last 59 games. Still, road wins are never automatic — especially for the Jets — and last Sunday’s performance was solid across the board: Geno Smith completed 19 of 24 for 215 yards with no turnovers and no sacks; Breece Hall accounted for 102 of New York’s 152 rushing yards; and the defense held Tennessee to 11 first downs and 195 total yards while racking up three sacks.
They’ll face a tougher opponent in Green Bay this week, but the Packers are hardly unbeatable. After a 9-3-1 start last season they’ve dropped six straight games (including a wild-card loss to Chicago), and their most recent defeat was especially embarrassing — leading Minnesota 22-10 before surrendering 29 straight points to Carson Wentz late. Over that skid they’ve been missing a key pass rusher, and their defense has been giving up 30.5 points per game. Word is that pass-rushing help won’t be active again Sunday.
Pick: Jets +4
Yes, I’m still licking my wounds for fading the Bears in Week 1, but I’m not going to back off fading them again in Week 2.
Caleb Williams and Chicago’s offense were sensational in the 59-37 win over Carolina, piling up 552 total yards (including 291 on the ground) and eight touchdowns. That said, the Bears looked sloppy in places: 12 penalties, and the defense allowed Bryce Young to throw for 361 yards (one of his heavier passing outings). Carolina also rolled up 24 first downs and went 4-for-4 in the red zone. Chicago did win the turnover battle (plus-2), and last season they led the league with a +22 turnover margin — but that kind of fortune doesn’t always persist, and I’m betting it evens out.
Play: Minnesota to cover vs. Chicago in Week 3
Minnesota’s comeback against Green Bay was impressive. After Kyler Murray exited early and the Packers built a 22-10 lead, the Vikings rallied behind Carson Wentz (three second-half touchdown passes). The defense tightened when it mattered — holding Green Bay to 1-for-4 in the red zone — and the team played fairly cleanly (just three penalties and one turnover, Murray’s first-pass interception). That mirrors last season’s pattern: a 4-8 start followed by a five-game winning streak to close, and now Minnesota arrives in Chicago on a six-game unbeaten run (5-0-1 ATS). The Vikings have dominated this matchup recently, winning nine of 12 this decade and all six meetings in Chicago.
Pick: Vikings +5.5
Then there’s the Browns pick I have to bury. That one was spectacularly wrong. Backing Cleveland at Jacksonville felt terrible afterward: the Browns were down 14-0 after one quarter, 24-0 at the half, and 31-0 early in the third, and Jacksonville still covered the 8.5-point spread by more than two touchdowns even after a late “garbage” score.
You can’t overreact to Jacksonville’s 34-10 shellacking of Cleveland — the Browns are clearly a mess — but the Jaguars’ recent form is undeniable. They’ve won nine straight regular-season games since Week 11 last year, going 9-0 ATS in that span, 4-0 on the road, 3-0 as underdogs, and notching seven double-digit victories. As a comparison, Jacksonville has one double-digit win as a road underdog against Denver — in Week 16 last season they went into Mile High and beat the Broncos 34-20 as a 3.5-point dog, ending Denver’s 11-game winning streak.
I wasn’t bullish on the Broncos before the season, and Monday night’s 31-10 loss at Kansas City didn’t change my mind. Denver should be more competitive at home this week, but is that enough to slow Trevor Lawrence — who has 18 touchdown passes and one interception across his last seven regular-season games — or to contain a Jacksonville defense that’s been stingy during the Jags’ nine-game streak? I don’t think so.
Pick: Jaguars +120 ML
Last week’s record: 0-3
Fan Take: These early-season swings matter because they reveal which teams are built to endure the grind and which ones are masking flaws behind lucky breaks. For fans, watching underdogs cover and established teams stumble keeps the league unpredictable and makes each matchup consequential for playoff races and coaching decisions down the line.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
