The Opta supercomputer has released its match predictions for the upcoming weekend of the 2026-27 Premier League season, as the standings begin to solidify.
Both Manchester City and Arsenal have secured full points so far, maintaining their strong starts.
The refereeing organization, Pro Ref, acknowledged that Erling Haaland’s decisive goal in the derby against Manchester United on Sunday was incorrectly allowed, as Enzo Fernandez was offside, but Enzo Maresca will overlook it after City’s fourth consecutive victory.
Arsenal faced a tough challenge last week, but a vital penalty save by David Raya helped them secure a 2-0 win over Sunderland.
Currently, Leeds United and Hull City are impressively positioned in the Champions League spots, remaining unbeaten as they aim to keep up the pace heading into the international break.
Matchday 5 features games on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, promising an exciting weekend of fixtures.
In anticipation of another riveting round of Premier League matches, here are the predictions from the Opta supercomputer.
BRENTFORD V CHELSEA
Kicking off Matchday 5 is a west London derby at the Gtech Community Stadium where Brentford takes on Chelsea.
The Bees are one of seven teams yet to lose this season, but they have drawn three matches in a row since their opening win against Tottenham.
Friday night football in West London. pic.twitter.com/2l82R8tSF1
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) September 15, 2026
Interestingly, 10 of Brentford’s last 14 Premier League matches have ended in draws (W2 L2). Opta predicts a 24.3% chance for another draw, while Chelsea has a 40.3% likelihood of winning, making them the slight favorites over Brentford’s 35.4% chance.
Both teams have opened the scoring in all four of their Premier League matches this season, and historically, the team that scores first has won 58.3% of games this season (21 out of 36).
If Chelsea hopes to return to winning form, Joao Pedro will play a critical role if he recovers from his recent injury—he currently has the most goal contributions in the league this season (six: three goals and three assists).
TOTTENHAM V ASTON VILLA
Saturday’s early match features two teams without wins as Tottenham squares off against Aston Villa.
Neither team has registered a league victory yet; Tottenham hasn’t scored in any of their league games this season, while Villa recently broke their own goal drought but suffered a 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest.
This is the first time Tottenham has opened a league season with four matches without scoring, and only Crystal Palace in 2017-18 endured a longer goalless stretch at the start of a season.
Aston Villa could start with five winless fixtures for the fourth time, mirroring prior seasons (1919-20, 1964-65, 2025-26), although they did achieve a 3-1 victory against Coventry City in the EFL Cup on Wednesday.
According to expected goals (xG) metrics, Spurs (3.45) and Villa (3.39) hold the 19th and 20th positions in the league, highlighting their struggles in front of goal.
The supercomputer’s simulations suggest a 24.7% chance of a draw, making this the weekend’s most probable stalemate, with Spurs favored to win (49.5%) against Villa (25.8%).
BRIGHTON V ARSENAL
At the top of the table, Arsenal aims to continue their perfect start against a strong Brighton side, which has performed well in earlier matches.
Brighton received applause from some Coventry supporters after their 5-0 thrashing of the Sky Blues last week. They’ve scored 13 league goals this season, the highest in the league, and are one of the few teams to win two matches by four or more goals in their first four fixtures.
Following a thrilling 3-2 comeback against Manchester United in the EFL Cup, Brighton may face challenges breaking through Arsenal’s solid defense.
The Gunners have enjoyed nine consecutive wins in top-flight matches, conceding only two goals, and have a 55.6% chance of winning, the highest for any away team this week, leaving Brighton at 21.3%.
EVERTON V IPSWICH
Coming off a 4-2 victory over Ipswich Town in the EFL Cup, Arsenal’s fourth-round oppressor will now challenge Everton.
After winning 3-2 at Crystal Palace last weekend, Ipswich is halfway to equaling their win total from their last Premier League season (four), which took them until mid-December to achieve.
At a 22.2% chance of winning, they are underdogs against an Everton team that remains unbeaten (54.6%), though they have drawn their last three matches.
Everton’s unbeaten streak marks their best start since the 2020-21 season (W4 D1).
NEWCASTLE UNITED V HULL CITY
Hull City, after drawing 2-2 with Chelsea, heads into their match against Newcastle United still aiming for an unbeaten record.
A win could see them become the first newly promoted team to go five games without defeat since Portsmouth in the 2003-04 season. If they win, they would be the first promoted team in over a decade to achieve over ten points from their first five matches.
Having not lost in three visits to St. James’ Park (W2 D1), they are uniquely positioned against the hosts.
Newcastle, eager to recover from a heavy 4-1 loss to Leeds United, has faced the most shots in the league this season (76). Despite their struggles, they are favored to win with a 58.5% probability, compared to Hull’s 20.6% chance.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V COVENTRY CITY
In Saturday’s late match, Nottingham Forest will host Coventry City, who are still searching for their first points as they remain goalless.
Coventry are aiming to avoid matching Crystal Palace’s record of consecutive losses without scoring at the start of a Premier League campaign, assigned only a 19.5% likelihood of victory.
Nottingham Forest achieved their first win under Oliver Glasner last time out, yet they will need to improve their home form, where they have only collected 11 points since last Christmas.
The supercomputer predicts a 58.5% probability of them earning three points and local bragging rights.
BOURNEMOUTH V LIVERPOOL
On Sunday, Bournemouth will face Liverpool in a match where both clubs have drawn three of their four outings so far. Manager Andoni Iraola is eager to turn the tide against his former team.
The probability of Liverpool winning is at 44.2%, considering Bournemouth has historically struggled against them (W3 D1). The chance of another draw stands at 24.2%, while Bournemouth has a 31.6% chance for a first win this season.
LEEDS UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE
Leeds United is currently third in the league and hopes to solidify that position against Crystal Palace, who are yet to find consistency this season (23.2% chance of victory).
Leeds has a strong record against Palace at home, winning four of their last six matches, including a substantial 4-1 victory in this venue last season. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s impressive form will be pivotal for Leeds as he has scored in each of his last five league games at Elland Road.
5 – Dominic Calvert-Lewin is just the second Leeds United player to score in five consecutive Premier League appearances at Elland Road after Mark Viduka between March and August 2003 (6 in a row). Dreamland. pic.twitter.com/HaDVbf5aTO
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 14, 2026
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has only one league victory to show and continues to struggle defensively, having allowed the most goals (11) and faced the most expected goals (8.15 xG) this season.
MANCHESTER CITY V SUNDERLAND
As they aim to maintain their perfect record from last week’s contentious derby win, Manchester City faces Sunderland, who are searching for consistency. City has a 73.3% win probability and an unbeaten record against Sunderland at home (W12 D2) since January 1998.
City’s two losses in their last 30 league matches (W20 D8) signify their dominance as they target a fifth straight win at the start of the season.
Sunderland holds a mere 10.6% chance of ending a 17-match winless streak against top two competitors in the league, with a slightly better 16.1% chance of a draw.
FULHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
The final match before the international break sees Manchester United aiming for redemption against Fulham, who recently won 3-2 against West Ham in the EFL Cup.
United’s disappointing start to the season has them with just four points from four matches, making it their joint-lowest at this stage alongside previous poor seasons.
They have a 48.3% win probability against Fulham, given their strong historical performance against them (W16 D4 in the last 21 matches). Fulham has not defeated United at home in their last ten league encounters (D2 L8). Despite a rough start to their season, they will seek to turn their 27.5% chance of winning into three points.
Fan Take: The predictions and insights shared by the Opta supercomputer highlight the developing narratives within the Premier League this season. For fans, these matchups represent pivotal moments that could shape the fortunes of their clubs as they vie for titles, European spots, or relegation survival, making every game a crucial event in the unfolding drama of English football.
Source: www.soccernews.com
