With the 2026 MLB regular season winding down on its final Thursday, this will be my last parlay pick shared here for the year. I’ll return with more selections during the playoffs, although likely less frequently. Admittedly feeling a bit worn out on baseball, I’m going against my usual advice and backing the road team tonight: Houston, starting a series in Sacramento. If you bet $5 or more on any MLB game this Thursday, you can claim $150 in bonus bets through DraftKings Sportsbook.
The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET at Sutter Health Park, a known hitter-friendly minor league venue, so the total sits at 11 runs. Winds typically blow out there and are expected to be around 10 mph tonight. Houston commands over 93% of both the betting handle and tickets on the money line, while the Under 11 option is also seeing solid interest.
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Astros vs. Athletics Same-Game Parlay:
- Houston money line
- Alternative Under 14 runs
DraftKings Sportsbook lists this same-game parlay at -110, subject to changes.
Turning to the Athletics, there’s not much to highlight despite the dramatic tone of a late-night cop show quote: they are likely to finish below .500 for the fifth straight year. Manager Mark Kotsay’s future is uncertain, especially as this marks the team’s final season in Sacramento before relocating to Las Vegas. Injuries have decimated the Athletics roster this year, sidelining key players like Nick Kurtz and Brent Rooker, among others. While the team hovered around .500 in May, a wave of injuries sent them tumbling, making Sacramento the worst MLB team since July 1.
Tonight’s probable starter for Oakland is Mason Barnett, who holds a 1-4 record with a 7.16 ERA and may actually pitch a shortened game with heavy bullpen usage. The Athletics have lost all 11 games Barnett has appeared in this season. After a demotion late in August, he returned last week and allowed three runs over 3.1 innings in a loss to Cleveland. Barnett faced Houston once this year in relief, pitching four scoreless innings back in early June. The SportsLine model predicts about 4.6 innings, with 4.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed, and 2.6 runs given up.
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The AL West title is a tight race between rivals Houston and Texas, both standing at 78-80. The loser will miss even the final wild card spot, as the Astros hold the tiebreaker advantage, winning the series 9-4 and favored at -280 versus Texas’s +230 odds. Both teams lost their games on Wednesday. Texas wraps up its season with a road game against New York then three games in Minnesota, while Houston still has this four-game series.
There are reports that Houston’s manager Joe Espada might not return next year unless there’s a deep playoff run, as his contract expires after this season. Despite being one of the weakest Astros teams since 2014, Yordan Alvarez is having a standout AL MVP campaign, leading in home runs (tied at 41) and batting average (.316) but trailing in RBIs.
The Astros may be missing starting shortstop and leadoff hitter Jeremy Pena tonight, who suffered a wrist injury Tuesday. At the mound for Houston is 29-year-old Peter Lambert, who carries an 8-10 record with a 3.70 ERA. Lambert struggled for years with Colorado and did not pitch in 2025 but has been Houston’s most frequent starter. Still, he has an 0-3 record this month with a 3.93 ERA and no wins in his last 12 starts, going 0-5. He did beat the Athletics in his only 2026 start versus them, allowing just one run over 5.1 innings. The projection model estimates he’ll pitch 5.7 innings, strike out 5.5 batters, allow 5 hits, and give up 2.2 runs. This could be the most pivotal start of his career.
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Astros closer Josh Hader will likely be out after throwing 41 pitches in an exhausting outing Wednesday, which isn’t ideal, but all other factors favor Houston. The Athletics don’t enjoy much home-field edge here. According to the model, Houston is favored narrowly, 5.1 to 4.8 runs. If the combined runs hit 14 or more, I’ll just stay with the money line win.
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Fan Take:
This late-season showdown highlights the stark contrast between a team fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive and a franchise in transition, underscoring how injuries and management decisions shape the sport’s competitive balance. Baseball fans should pay attention to these end-of-season storylines as they often signal the direction teams and the league will take in the coming years.
Source: www.cbssports.com
