The Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
Green Bay enters at 1-1 after a bizarre loss in Week 1 to Minnesota and a lackluster overtime victory over the New York Jets in Week 2. The Packers are dealing with a raft of injuries but will be playing their first home game of the year and will be eager to notch a win in front of their crowd. Atlanta is 0-2 following defeats by Pittsburgh and Carolina, but they’ll get their regular starter back when Michael Penix Jr. returns to the lineup. The Falcons are also injury-riddled, but putting Penix back behind center should allow them to run their intended offense as they hunt for their first victory.
Game details
– Date: Thursday, Sept. 24 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
– Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay, WI
– Streaming: Amazon Prime
– Follow live: CBS Sports App
– Betting lines (DraftKings): Packers -4.5, Over/Under 42.5
When the Falcons have the ball
It’s hard to predict exactly what Atlanta’s offense will look like because we’ve essentially only seen backup Cooper Rush run it through the first two weeks, and it hasn’t worked. The Falcons have scored just 16 points and coughed up seven turnovers in two games, ranking near the bottom in offensive success rate and dead last in EPA per play (TruMedia). Entering this matchup, Penix is cleared to play after knee surgery and has been practicing fully, but his on-field track record is mixed.
Through 14 career appearances he’s 4-8 as a starter, completing about 59.6% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s struggled with accuracy relative to peers—among quarterbacks with 300+ attempts since he arrived, Penix ranks near the bottom in completion percentage and off-target throws (TruMedia). On the flip side, he throws downfield frequently (fourth in average depth of target) and produces explosiveness (top-10 in explosives per dropback). He’s also been seldom sacked (around a 4.3% sack rate) and doesn’t throw many interceptions, although since 2024 he has an unusually high rate of passes that could have been intercepted but were dropped by defenders (second-highest dropped-interception rate).
Matchup-wise, the Falcons will try to get the ball to Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Getting Robinson the ball is straightforward because many opportunities are carries or short touches; connecting with London and Pitts has been the bigger question mark, and Rush largely failed to do that. Penix should help in theory, but how much he can consistently deliver remains uncertain. Green Bay’s defense has allowed only 3.9 yards per play through two games, but that figure comes after limited challenges (a backup QB and a sloppy, rainy game), so it’s unclear how predictive it is.
When the Packers have the ball
Green Bay’s offense is also a mess of injuries and absences. Jayden Reed, Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks are out. Savion Williams (IR) and Luke Musgrave (PUP) are unavailable, and Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner’s exempt list. On Atlanta’s side, A.J. Terrell is on injured reserve; Samson Ebukam is out and Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable. The Falcons are additionally without Jalon Walker and Da’Shawn Hand (IR) and James Pearce Jr. (suspended).
Both offenses and both defenses have been inconsistent. The Packers are middle-of-the-pack in yards (17th) and points (18th) but sit near the bottom in TruMedia EPA per play (27th, tied with Cleveland and Tampa Bay). The Falcons rank 12th in yards allowed but 25th in points allowed; their seventh-ranked EPA per play is inflated by their stronger performance against Pittsburgh and did not hold up against Carolina.
Green Bay has struggled to establish the run without Jacobs — MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson haven’t produced, and the offensive line has looked banged up and disjointed. The Packers are averaging only about 3.3 yards per carry. The passing game showed promise early in Week 1 before sputtering later and was ineffective against the Jets. Still, Green Bay has competent targets in Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft, and if Atlanta can’t generate consistent pressure on Jordan Love the Packers can be dangerous through the air. The Falcons, however, have produced a surprisingly high pressure rate (third in the league so far, per TruMedia), and persistent pressure could make life difficult for Green Bay’s offense.
Prediction
Given how poorly Atlanta has looked to begin the year, and despite the upgrade at QB with Penix returning, it’s hard to pick the Falcons. Their defense has flaws and key defenders are injured. Green Bay has its own problems, but they should be able to do enough at Lambeau to win this one without needing a rout.
Pick: Packers 23, Falcons 13
Fan Take: This game matters because it helps define early-season trajectories for two franchises that could go in very different directions depending on how their quarterbacks and injured players perform. A comfortable Packers win would stabilize Green Bay after a rocky start, while a Falcons victory with Penix would provide hope that their offense can be restored and make the NFC South race more competitive.
Source: www.cbssports.com
