Examining the NBA’s over/under win totals offers a valuable lens for setting expectations for every team as the new season approaches—even if you’re not into betting. Take the San Antonio Spurs, for example: last season, their win total was forecasted at just 44.5, yet they surged to 62 wins and reached the 2026 NBA Finals, showing how preseason predictions can often underestimate a team’s potential.
Sportsbooks excel at establishing these win lines. Last season, I had a 4-3 record on my over/under picks, though my article’s results finished 3-4 due to a one-game difference in the New York Knicks’ line at the time of publication—highlighting how slim the margins really are.
Predicting this year is especially tricky because of the NBA’s new anti-tanking policies. In previous seasons, weaker teams often handed out free wins to boost draft lottery odds, but with almost fully randomized lottery odds and the three worst teams having worse chances at the number one pick, manipulating outcomes is now nearly impossible. With the 2026-2027 season imminent, here are my top NBA win total bets, all sourced from FanDuel.
The Chicago Bulls carry fresh hope with rookie Caleb Wilson and new GM Bryson Graham, who has been active making moves like signing Norm Powell, trading for Nic Claxton, and drafting Dailyn Swain. Despite this, the Bulls still face a rebuilding challenge, struggling with below-average shooting volume, defense, and lacking a true star. The team may see more veteran trades by mid-season as Graham reshapes the roster. While Wilson and Matas Buzelis bring exciting athleticism, the Bulls’ win total line seems optimistic unless Wilson immediately impacts on both ends.
Last season, the Houston Rockets won 52 games despite missing Fred VanVleet all year and seeing Steven Adams sidelined after January. Adams starts this season healthy, boosting their offensive rebounding. I expect growth from Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, and hopeful leaps from Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard. Although Kevin Durant may decline with age eventually, he was still strong last season and likely won’t drop off sharply yet. The Rockets’ grind-it-out style may not be flashy, but it can prove effective.
The Lakers finished with 53 wins last year even with Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic playing limited games. This season, they lose LeBron James but have reinforced their roster, particularly at center, adding rim protector Walker Kessler to cover for injuries. Kessler is expected to outshine last year’s options Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes. Sandro Mamukelashvili complements Luka well, and Matisse Thybulle offers defensive potential that might play better in the regular season than playoffs. If Doncic stays healthy for a similar number of games, the Lakers possess enough talent and coaching to surpass their win total line comfortably.
The Memphis Grizzlies, despite tanking late last season, earned the third overall pick, snagging Cameron Boozer—whom I’ve touted as the best prospect and a future MVP candidate. Boozer will be the youngest player in the league but looks ready from day one. Zach Edey is a key factor when healthy, complementing Boozer in the frontcourt. Memphis also has a promising guard group led by underrated Ty Jerome, with potential breakout players like Cam Spencer and Cedric Coward. While expected to be among the worst Western teams, I believe Memphis will outperform those low forecasts.
The Golden State Warriors, who were buoyed by Jimmy Butler last year, face an uphill climb as Butler continues ACL rehab. Stephen Curry remains elite, but his ability to play a full season at age 38 is uncertain. Draymond Green still excels defensively but his offense is steadily declining, while Kristaps Porzingis battles chronic health issues. Promising young players like Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Brandin Podziemski bring hope, with a possible De’Anthony Melton resurgence. If Curry plays extensive minutes, the Warriors could surprise, but this win total line feels a bit steep for my taste.
The Toronto Raptors upgraded by trading Brandon Ingram for Kawhi Leonard, who was a top-five league player last season and could push them to win more games—assuming he stays healthy. Leonard’s ability to contribute consistently is always uncertain, but his motivation to prove himself post-controversy could fuel a strong campaign. Scottie Barnes has emerged as a strong second option, Collin Murray-Boyles looks poised for growth, and the bench offers a blend of defensive grit and spacing. Though concerns remain at center and point guard, the Raptors should be competitive if Leonard reaches around 65 games.
Regarding the Washington Wizards and their 33.5 wins under, I prefer the 35.5 line and am inclined to bet the under. Despite adding Anthony Davis and Trae Young, their success seems doubtful. Davis’s health and motivation are uncertain, and Young’s injury history and declining athleticism limit his impact. Rookie A.J. Dybantsa is promising, but his fit with Young is questionable. While the team has young talent, they aren’t expected to contribute immediately, and coach Brian Keefe’s return doesn’t inspire confidence. With defensive issues likely unless Davis plays at peak level and a lack of offensive spacing, betting against the Wizards feels wise.
The Utah Jazz’s over/under is 37.5 wins, but I prefer betting on their playoff berth at +120 odds. It’s unlikely they’ll be in the West’s top six, so advancing through the play-in tournament seems their best path. Despite risks, Utah’s mix of talent and coaching under Will Hardy—who looks ready to prove himself after years of tanking—gives them an edge over rivals like Phoenix, Portland, and Golden State. Though their playmaking and frontcourt health may be concerns, their offensive talent should be enough to secure a playoff spot.
Fan Take: These projections are important for basketball fans as they highlight how dynamic team trajectories can be, especially with new league rules and emerging young talent reshaping competitive balance. Understanding these nuanced expectations enriches our anticipation for the season and showcases the evolving landscape that keeps the sport thrilling year after year.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
