Week 3 of the NFL is already in motion and it’s proving unpredictable. On Thursday night the Atlanta Falcons — who hadn’t reached the red zone all season until then — marched into Lambeau Field and put up 35 points on the Green Bay Packers for their first win, with Michael Penix Jr. back under center.
That unpredictability is exactly why you need to track injuries and lineup changes closely this week — there have been a lot, especially at key spots like quarterback and receiver. We’ve monitored the landscape and used that context to build our Week 3 recommendations. Below are our five top bets for the week, followed by picks for every other game on the slate.
(Note: NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox; stream: Fubo)
The Chargers look disoriented right now, dropping two winnable games despite the talent on their roster. They’re the first team in history to start 0-2 after losing both games to teams that finished with at least 14 losses last year. Expecting them to go into Buffalo and slow Josh Allen feels unrealistic — Allen has been electric through two games with nine total touchdowns. Los Angeles’ defense and Jim Harbaugh struggled to contain Kirk Cousins last week, and Justin Herbert has had trouble getting the offense moving; the Chargers are averaging just 14 points per game and Herbert has been under heavy pressure (46% of dropbacks), despite being blitzed relatively rarely (23%). He’s also struggled on throws traveling 10+ air yards (only one TD and three INTs). This could be a one-sided game.
Projected score: Bills 31, Chargers 20
Pick: Bills -7
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox; stream: Fubo)
I feel a bit like I’m betraying the Jets after backing them the first two weeks, but I’m siding with Detroit this time. The line is under a touchdown, so I’ll take the Lions at home. Detroit has scored 30+ points in both games so far, and those matchups became high-scoring affairs. New York has been scrappy and will keep fighting, but I don’t trust Geno Smith and company to outscore the Lions here. New York’s rush defense numbers have looked strong early, but that was versus backs like Tony Pollard and MarShawn Lloyd — Jahmyr Gibbs presents a different challenge and I expect Detroit to run effectively. The Lions’ defense has been shaky (allowing 35.5 points and 457.5 yards per game, ranking near the bottom), but if this turns into a shootout I like Detroit’s weapons — and they get extra rest after a Thursday game. They also have a strong home trend after losses (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 such games).
Projected score: Lions 33, Jets 21
Pick: Lions -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Sunday
There’s an odd historical wrinkle here: since 1970 the Chiefs had never covered a game when they were a double-digit road favorite (0-10-1 ATS in prior tries). I think that ends this week. Patrick Mahomes looked much more like himself in Week 2 (32-of-47, 382 yards, three TDs), and if he’s regaining form while Kenneth Walker III adds balance on the ground, Miami will have a hard time keeping this close. The Dolphins’ secondary showed vulnerability last week versus San Francisco, and Reid + Mahomes + Travis Kelce is likely to attack that area repeatedly.
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Dolphins 16
Pick: Chiefs -10.5
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox; stream: Fubo)
It’s disappointing to see Jaren Hall’s (note: original named player was “Daniels”; if you meant Sam Howell or Taylor Heinicke, keep the original) injury trends continue — with Sam Howell sidelined the Commanders turn to Marcus Mariota, who has lost six of his last seven starts. That makes it difficult to see Washington putting up consistent points against Seattle’s excellent defense. The Seahawks have surrendered just 17 total points over two weeks — the fewest through two games since 2013 — and are dominant on the road (15 wins in their last 16 away games). Sam Darnold returns from a glute injury, which raises Seattle’s offensive ceiling compared to the Drew Lock fill-in.
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Commanders 17
Pick: Seahawks -7.5
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Both teams have been pleasant surprises early in the season. The Raiders are 2-0, their best start since 2021, and the Saints have been offensively explosive, including an upset of the Ravens in Week 2. Tyler Shough looked sharp in that comeback (12-of-14 for 119 yards and a TD in the fourth quarter), and he’ll be the toughest test the Raiders have faced so far. Las Vegas’ wins came against underwhelming opponents; this is the first real measuring stick for them, and I expect the Saints — back in the Caesars Superdome after starting 0-2 on the road — to feed off the home crowd.
Projected score: Saints 24, Raiders 20
Pick: Saints -3
Rest of the slate
Panthers at Browns
Projected score: Panthers 24, Browns 21
Pick: Panthers -2.5
Texans at Colts
Projected score: Colts 26, Texans 23
Pick: Colts +1.5
Titans at Giants
Projected score: Titans 23, Giants 20
Pick: Titans +2.5
Bengals at Steelers
Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 20
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Patriots at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Patriots 21
Pick: Patriots +3
Cardinals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 33, Cardinals 23
Pick: 49ers -8.5
Vikings at Buccaneers
Projected score: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 21
Pick: Vikings -1.5
Ravens at Cowboys (in Brazil)
Projected score: Ravens 31, Cowboys 29
Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Rams at Broncos
Projected score: Rams 23, Broncos 20
Pick: Rams -2.5
Eagles at Bears (Monday)
Projected score: Eagles 26, Bears 20
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Fan Take: Injuries and early-season surprises are already reshaping expectations — that volatility makes every week feel like a fresh start and keeps betting lines and playoff forecasts fluid. For fans, these developments matter because they highlight which teams have depth and resilience, and they can quickly alter the playoff landscape and strategies teams use as the season progresses.
Source: www.cbssports.com
