This weekend promises to be exciting as the race for the MLB home run leader heats up, with former Cub Kyle Schwarber and current Chicago Cubs star and NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong tied at 45 home runs each. Either player could take the crown, and many will see a tie as a fair outcome. Both are expected to play most games since their teams are competing for improved NL wild-card positioning. However, since their odds to win are the same at -110, there’s no clear betting advantage.
If you’re interested in betting on home run props, DraftKings is offering an enticing $150 in bonus bets for new users after a $5+ wager. Over the last four MLB seasons, I’ve gained $1,681 in MLB picks, which you can explore further on SportsLine and in a dedicated Discord community of sports bettors and experts.
Last Friday, my home run prop picks featured Nolan Arenado of the Diamondbacks at +630 against the Yankees and Mike Yastrzemski of the Braves at +630 versus the Astros. Although Arenado didn’t homer, he recorded two hits and cashed the Over 1.5 total bases bet. Meanwhile, Yastrzemski struggled with an 0-for-4 performance.
BetMGM is currently offering up to $1,500 in bonus bets with the code CBSSPORTS for those looking to bet on home runs.
For Friday, September 25, here are top home run picks:
Pete Alonso, Orioles (+394 on DraftKings)
The Orioles and Yankees begin a three-game AL East series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are locked into the top AL wild card position, while Baltimore is out of the playoffs and cannot finish with a winning record, so betting sides here doesn’t make much sense. Many playoff-bound stars may rest or be pulled during games to prepare for the postseason, which begins Tuesday. The Yankees have confirmed that Aaron Judge will not play in the Wild Card Series due to injury, though he insists he plans to play.
Pete Alonso, Baltimore’s major free-agent signing, had a slow start but has been hitting exceptionally well lately. He currently shares the AL home run lead at 41 homers. Alonso is the first Oriole since Anthony Santander in 2024 to reach 40 home runs, surpassing his spring projection of 37.5. He was named the Orioles’ team MVP this week, the first unanimous pick since Cedric Mullins in 2021. Alonso performs much better against right-handed pitching and faces righty Will Warren tonight, who has allowed 20 home runs this season. Alonso is 2-for-7 against Warren with two solo homers. No other Orioles hitters stand out as strong plays.
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering up to $250 in bonus bets for home run and other prop wagers.
Drake Baldwin, Braves (+400 on FanDuel)
Atlanta and Miami kick off an NL East series at 7:05 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park. The retractable roof will likely remain closed, so weather won’t be a factor. Though it’s a low-stakes game—the Braves are division champs and the Marlins aim for a .500 finish—Baldwin will lead off and serve as DH. The Marlins’ pitching is led by right-hander Eury Perez (7-11, 4.14 ERA), who will start tonight; Perez has given up 20 home runs this season.
Drake Baldwin, a left-handed hitter, is arguably MLB’s best all-around offensive catcher, even though he DHs frequently. He has 24 homers and a .456 slugging percentage but has cooled off in September with just two homers. Still, he’s been productive against Perez, going 4-for-9 with two homers.
Fan Take: This home run race isn’t just a numbers contest—it highlights the emergence of new contenders and the sustained excellence of established stars, keeping fans engaged right up to the postseason. With personal milestones and team positions on the line, these final games could produce some unforgettable moments that energize the sport and its fanbase.
Source: www.cbssports.com
