By Week 3 we should have a clearer picture of the NFL pecking order — but the early season has continued to confound expectations. Upsets and surprising performances have forced us to rethink plenty of assumptions, though some impressions have only hardened. Below are takeaways that feel like overreactions and others that feel like reality.
Lamar Jackson gave the Ravens a season-defining victory
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Ravens have a history of collapsing late in games, blowing multiple double-digit, second-half leads the past few seasons, and it looked like another meltdown against Dallas was coming. Instead Lamar Jackson engineered a late go-ahead touchdown to Matthew Hibner, the defense limited Dallas to a field goal, and Jackson set up the game-clinching play with a big completion to Zay Flowers in the final seconds. Jackson finished with efficient passing numbers, two TDs, and another 50 rushing yards — a leadership performance that felt like exorcising a longstanding team weakness and counts as one of Baltimore’s most important regular-season wins in recent memory.
The Raiders’ 3-0 start is exciting but not proof of playoff destiny
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Las Vegas is the most unexpected 3-0 team in recent memory given their long preseason odds. Kirk Cousins was expected to be a short-term stopgap, Brock Bowers missed early games, and the roster still has clear holes. Still, Cousins has been efficient (notably limiting sacks), Bowers returned with a big game, and the Raiders lead the league in turnover margin thanks in part to rookie corner Hezekiah Masses’ interceptions. That said, the turnover numbers are unsustainably high, Cousins’ recent performance may regress, and the wins so far have come against uneven opponents. This is an impressive turnaround under Klint Kubiak, but it’s premature to assume a playoff berth — especially with upcoming games versus the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams.
Brock Purdy is firing on all cylinders
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The 49ers are 3-0 and Purdy has been exceptionally efficient across key metrics: leading the league in net yards per attempt, EPA per dropback, success rate and touchdown rate, while ranking among the top in completion percentage. His downfield production matches the numbers — he’s among the league leaders in completions of 15+ yards — and he’s doing it despite missing several receivers and with George Kittle returning from a major knee injury. Purdy’s play deserves recognition.
Drake Maye’s turnovers are a real problem for the Patriots
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Maye threw two costly interceptions in New England’s 35-6 loss to Jacksonville and also lost a fumble. Those turnovers flipped momentum and led directly to quick Jaguars scores, turning a manageable deficit into a blowout. Through three games Maye has six interceptions — well above any other quarterback — and his turnover-driven expected points added sits far into negative territory, meaning his mistakes have erased a huge chunk of New England’s scoring potential. After earlier optimism that turnovers wouldn’t doom the team, it’s now clear they could jeopardize the Patriots’ margin for error this season.
Trevor Lawrence is staking a case as a dark-horse MVP candidate
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Lawrence delivered a polished, high-level performance in Jacksonville, throwing three TDs and making difficult throws consistently. He showed the arm, athleticism and accuracy scouts expected coming out of college — including pinpoint work on intermediate-to-deep throws under pressure — and he’s starting to look like the elite quarterback many projected he could become.
The Commanders earned their biggest win so far despite losing Jayden Daniels
Washington’s rematch with Seattle came after Jayden Daniels suffered a second dislocated elbow, leaving Marcus Mariota to start for the Commanders. Mariota threw three touchdown passes and sealed the win with a critical rushing first down late. Washington’s defense and depth players stepped up — including a rookie, Kain Medrano, recording a pick-six in his first defensive snaps — and veterans like Terry McLaurin produced key plays. Against the odds and mounting adversity, the team showed resilience that speaks well of the locker-room culture, even if it’s too early to know how sustainable it is.
Losing Kenneth Walker is a major setback for the Seahawks
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Seattle’s passing game looked effective in Sam Darnold’s return — he threw for 379 yards and four TDs — but the run game was anemic: just 44 yards on 18 attempts. Meanwhile Kenneth Walker is off to a league-leading start with 360 rushing yards after leaving Seattle this offseason. Walker’s explosive playmaking can’t be perfectly replicated by the existing Seattle backfield, and his departure may be the biggest offseason misstep the club made.
The Giants probably don’t need to panic-swing for a new QB yet
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
New York eked out a 12-7 win over Tennessee in terrible weather, their first victory without an offensive touchdown since 2013. Reports suggested the Giants could look externally for quarterback help after Jaxson Dart’s season-ending injury depending on Jameis Winston’s play; names have floated around, but few realistic trade targets would represent clear upgrades. For now, sticking with Winston — imperfect as he is — looks like the most sensible path.
The Chargers’ season looks dire after early turnover bleeding
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Teams that start with a -4 turnover margin or worse have virtually no winning history, and the Chargers’ losses through three weeks put them squarely in that bleak track record. A 24-16 loss to Buffalo — in which turnovers and special-teams miscues played big roles, Justin Herbert threw a huge late interception, and the Chargers surrendered a lot on the ground — left L.A. 0-3. With red-zone struggles, missed kicks and a defense that allowed key fourth-down conversions, their path forward looks extremely difficult.
Fan Take (two sentences)
Early-season unpredictability is part of what makes the NFL compelling — breakout teams and disappointing favorites force us to pay attention each week — but turnover rates and consistency at quarterback remain the clearest predictors of sustained success. Fans should watch which young players and coaches build on these flashes and which teams regress when the early luck (especially on turnovers) evens out, because those trends will determine playoff landscapes down the stretch.
Source: www.cbssports.com
