Sometimes you have to buck the crowd. For Week 4 I’m siding with underdogs the majority of bettors are avoiding — including a team that’s yet to notch a win or cover and another whose QB has thrown far more turnovers than TDs. Both picks go against squads that are 3-0 SU and ATS, and my third underdog play targets the only other surprise 3-0 club this season.
Patriots +6.5 at Bills
Buffalo arrives at 3-0 on the scoreboard and against the spread, while New England is 1-2 (both losses away), most recently struggling in Jacksonville. This reads like a classic sell-high (Bills), buy-low (Patriots) spot. Yes, Drake Maye has been a disaster so far (1 TD, 7 turnovers), and Josh Allen looks like an MVP frontrunner on paper, but Buffalo hasn’t been dominant: they barely handled a winless Texans team in Week 1, had the Lions make a second-half push in Week 2, and needed to overcome a 10-0 deficit and five turnovers — including two Allen INTs — to beat the Chargers after a long layoff. New England also has recent cover success vs. Buffalo (5-1 ATS in the last six meetings as the dog) and is 13-4 ATS over its last 17 games (9-2 on the road). The Bills also haven’t covered four straight games since early 2017. I’ll take the Pats getting +6.5.
Dolphins +10.5 at Vikings
Miami has been a disaster relative to expectations: 0-3 SU and ATS, three losses by 14+ points, scoring just 12 points per game (tied for last), and now losing explosive RB De’Von Achane for the season to an ACL tear. Their Week 4 opponent is another 3-0 team, but Minnesota’s record masks significant offensive problems. The Vikings have been routinely outgained (419-239 in Week 1, 297-246 in Week 2, 243-230 in Week 3), rank last in total offense (238.3 ypg) and passing (137 ypg), are 32nd in first downs, and near the bottom in third-down conversions. Their defense has carried them, but a double-digit spread is too high given how inept the offense has been. Take Miami +10.5 for value.
Raiders +4.5 at Chiefs
Kansas City showed dominance in Week 1 but has been less convincing since, scraping past the Colts in Week 2 and doing just enough in Miami in Week 3. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has impressed across the board: efficient and high-scoring offense (27, 26, 35 points), stout defense (allowing 18 points and about 317 yards per game), plenty of sacks and turnovers forced, and surprisingly disciplined penalty-wise. This is a stiff step up against Patrick Mahomes, and the Raiders have historically struggled to beat Kansas City, but I expect the Raiders to stay within the number — they’ve covered several times recently as an underdog and have been competitive vs. the Chiefs. Bet Raiders +4.5.
Last week: 2-0
Season record: 4-4
Fan Take: These underdog plays highlight early-season volatility — teams’ records can be misleading and market prices often lag actual performance trends. If underdogs continue to offer value, it could signal a more balanced league this year and make betting and game-watching more interesting for fans.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
