Last season, Arsenal was the nearest competitor to Manchester City for the Women’s Super League (WSL) title, finishing five points behind them under Andree Jeglertz’s management.
However, after just four games in the 2026-27 season, City is already leading by seven points, maintaining a flawless record, while Arsenal’s aspirations for the title seem to be fading.
For Renee Slegers’ team to retain a serious shot at the championship, securing a win or at least avoiding defeat at the Etihad Stadium this Sunday is essential.
We’re leveraging Opta insights to set the scene for this weekend’s exciting matchup and utilizing the Opta supercomputer’s predictions on which team may come out victorious.
Forecasting Expectations
The Opta supercomputer suggests that WSL leaders City are favored to win, with a 49.7% likelihood of victory in its pre-match simulations.
In contrast, Arsenal’s chances of winning are pegged at 25%, and the remaining 25.3% of predictions indicate a draw.
Historically, these teams have been closely matched, with the City-Arsenal matchup being one of only two in WSL history where both sides have managed to win against each other over ten times; currently, Arsenal leads 12-11 (with two matches ending in a draw).
Only Chelsea vs. Arsenal (32 matches), Arsenal vs. Liverpool (27), and Chelsea vs. Liverpool (26) have more encounters than City vs. Arsenal (25 prior to this Sunday).
In their last encounter at the Emirates Stadium in February, Arsenal secured a 1-0 victory with a goal from Olivia Smith in the 17th minute.
However, in their previous meeting at City’s home ground exactly a year ago, City claimed a 3-2 win, highlighted by Iman Beney’s late goal.
City has had a successful home record against Arsenal, winning six of their last nine WSL clashes at home (with one draw and two losses), with an average of 3.9 goals per match (21 scored by City and 14 by Arsenal).
City Aiming for a Perfect Start
This season marks the second instance City could win their first five games in a WSL campaign, following their undefeated seasons in 2016 (where they won six) and 2017-18 (where they won seven).
During 2016, City remained unbeaten and took the title from Chelsea, while in 2017-18, they ended second behind the invincible Chelsea squad.
Out of the last nine teams to start a WSL season with five straight wins, seven have finished in the top two, including three title winners: City in 2016, Arsenal in 2018-19, and Chelsea in 2024-25.
Here’s how the #BarclaysWSL table looks after this week’s fixtures #LeagueStandings #WTWKicks pic.twitter.com/ChmWFBB6oh
— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) September 27, 2026
City has begun their title defense strongly, defeating Birmingham City (3-1), Aston Villa (4-1), and Liverpool (4-2), followed by a narrow 1-0 victory against Charlton Athletic last weekend.
Under Jeglertz’s management, their average expected goals (xG) is over 3 per game this season, totaling 12.2, just shy of Chelsea’s 12.4. However, their defense has shown some weaknesses; three other teams have better expected goals against (xGA) than City’s 3.96.
The team has performed well domestically compared to their European efforts, having drawn 1-1 with Real Madrid in the Champions League and splitting four goals with Bayern Munich.
At home, City has thrived, winning their last 14 WSL games at home—a record only surpassed by Chelsea, who achieved 22 consecutive home wins from March 2022 to February 2024.
This match will be a significant milestone for City captain Alex Greenwood, as she hopes to celebrate her 200th WSL appearance with a win.
If she plays, she will become the 10th player to reach the 200-game milestone in WSL history and could potentially claim the record for the most starts in a player’s first 200 games, surpassing Gemma Bonner’s tally of 192.
Pressure Builds for Slegers
Rather than building on last season’s runner-up position, Arsenal has faced a lackluster start that has led to scrutiny of Slegers’ strategy.
Arsenal is only the third team in WSL history to both score and concede two goals or fewer in their first four matches. Earlier examples include Liverpool in 2014 and Chelsea in 2018-19, who eventually managed to finish third after a poor start.
If Arsenal does not secure a win on Sunday, they risk recording their second-worst start to a WSL season, having previously reached just four points in 2014, which remains their lowest point through five matches.
With their recent form, including three winless games (D2 L1), the Gunners could match their worst winless streak in WSL history, a record set in May 2014 and October 2023.
In their last match, Arsenal struggled offensively, managing only 0.79 xG in a 1-0 defeat against Chelsea and following it up with a disappointing 2-2 draw against Paris FC after leading 2-0.
It ends in a draw. pic.twitter.com/NBhTrVRrgj
— Arsenal Women (@ArsenalWFC) September 30, 2026
Arsenal’s defensive blunders, including a bizarre 87th-minute penalty against Leah Williamson, who mistakenly picked up a live ball thinking it was a goal kick, did not help their cause. Overall, their xG from open play was also unimpressive, sitting lower than that of Paris FC (1.16 to 1.44), making their outcome seem reasonable.
A review of Arsenal’s attacking statistics indicates a dual problem; their creativity and efficiency in converting opportunities are both lacking.
Throughout the first four matchdays, they have underperformed against their xG by 4.64 (only producing two goals against an xG of 6.64), although Brighton’s performance has been even worse with three goals from an xG of 8.33. Only Everton has a lower xG per shot than Arsenal’s 0.9, on par with Aston Villa.
With a dismal conversion rate of just 2.56% in the 2026-27 season, the pressure is on, as nine out of 14 WSL teams have converted at least 10% of their shots (including City at 13.64%). If Arsenal hopes to rebound this season, it’s crucial that their prominent attackers step up.
Currently, the likes of Alessia Russo, Caldentey, Stina Blackstenius, and Kelly have yet to score in the WSL, with Russo notably having the largest xG underperformance in the league (2.14 xG), though she did score in Paris midweek.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City – Lauren Hemp
With nine created chances, Hemp stands as the leading player in the WSL this season for chances following a ball carry of at least five meters, significantly ahead of Arsenal’s Lisa Baum, who has five.
Both players have recorded the joint-most shot-ending carries in the league through the first four games (eight each, tied with Lauren James), suggesting an interesting matchup in the wings.
Arsenal – Stina Blackstenius
Given Arsenal’s struggles in front of goal, they will likely depend on Blackstenius, who has had a strong history against City.
Blackstenius has either scored (four goals) or assisted (two) in her last five WSL appearances against Man City, sharing the record for the longest such streak with Lee Geum-Min, and is the only player to have three winning goals against City in the league.
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The match between Arsenal and Manchester City this weekend is pivotal, especially for Arsenal, as they strive to recover from a slow start. For soccer fans, this clash highlights not only the competitive nature of women’s football but also the high stakes involved in a league where every match can alter a team’s trajectory for the rest of the season.
Source: www.soccernews.com
