Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season comes with plenty to follow: Derrick Henry faces his old squad in Tennessee; the Colts and Commanders head to London; and Matthew Stafford and the Rams try to rebound against the Eagles. The season has been chaotic — four teams (Raiders, Browns, Giants, Saints) sit atop their divisions after finishing last in 2025 — raising questions about which clubs might be true sleepers and when J.J. McCarthy might get his shot in New York.
Note: betting lines cited were taken Sept. 29 from DraftKings Sportsbook. Advanced data courtesy of CBS Sports Research.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Washington Commanders (London)
– Jordan Dajani (Colts -3.5): Both defenses have struggled, but the Colts look like the better team overall. Indianapolis ranks last in total defense (417.3 yards) and near the bottom in points allowed (30.3), while Washington is among the worst in scoring defense (30.7) and has surrendered the highest opponent passer rating (124.4) and the most passing TDs (11). Jonathan Taylor, who starred the last time the Colts played overseas, has 325 total yards and four TDs through three weeks and should produce another big game in London. Prediction: Colts 27, Commanders 21.
– Jared Dubin (Commanders +3.5): Marcus Mariota has provided a spark — he upset Seattle last week — and should keep Washington competitive, but Dubin expects Jonathan Taylor to have a major impact and sees Daniel Jones finding chances against Washington’s pass defense. Still, he predicts a close win for Indianapolis. Prediction: Colts 23, Commanders 20.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
– Dajani (Bengals -2.5): Despite Jacksonville’s recent hot stretch and a big win over New England, Dajani trusts the Bengals at home after a narrow loss to Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has covered recent spreads away from division play, and its pass rush could give the Jaguars’ line fits. Plus, Joe Burrow’s historical edge over Trevor Lawrence is a factor. Prediction: Bengals 24, Jaguars 20.
– Dubin (Jaguars +2.5): Dubin likes the Jaguars to bounce back — their offense has looked strong and the defense has forced six turnovers in three games. He’s skeptical that Cincinnati’s Week 3 defensive showing is sustainable and expects Jacksonville to outscore the Bengals. Prediction: Jaguars 30, Bengals 27.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
– Dajani (Rams -3): After Philadelphia’s surprising loss to Chicago and uneven early-season play, Dajani favors a motivated Rams squad to take advantage. He points to Philly’s lack of first-quarter scoring and an offense/defense that hasn’t clicked consistently. Prediction: Rams 26, Eagles 20.
– Dubin (Rams -3): Dubin also backs the Rams, expecting Stafford to find success against an Eagles secondary that isn’t generating expected pressure, while Jalen Hurts and Philly continue a slow start. Prediction: Rams 24, Eagles 20.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5)
– Dajani (Texans -2.5): Tired of waiting for Houston to break through, Dajani expects Nico Collins’ return to spark the Texans. Collins has produced massive efficiency with C.J. Stroud (10.7 yards per attempt when targeted), and his presence could help Houston finally get a win against one of the league’s weaker defenses. Prediction: Texans 30, Cowboys 26.
– Dubin (Texans -2.5): Dubin agrees the Cowboys’ defense looks shaky and believes Houston, likely with Collins back, can move the ball enough to win. Prediction: Texans 24, Cowboys 21.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
– Dajani (Broncos +3): Denver’s history of comebacks and the 49ers’ injury concerns (Nick Bosa, Mike Evans, Dre Greenlaw, and a questionable Trent Williams) make Dajani lean Broncos here. He notes Denver’s strong record as underdogs and Bo Nix’s recent success versus NFC foes. Prediction: Broncos 24, 49ers 23.
– Dubin (49ers -3): Dubin trusts San Francisco’s offensive system and Brock Purdy to overcome personnel losses. He doesn’t think the Broncos’ up-and-down form is enough to topple the 49ers at home. Prediction: 49ers 24, Broncos 16.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers (SNF)
– Dajani (Lions -3.5): Despite Detroit’s defensive issues, Dajani expects a big offensive night against a Panthers team missing starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. With Dan Campbell’s Lions strong in primetime as favorites, he forecasts another high-scoring Detroit win. Prediction: Lions 35, Panthers 21.
– Dubin (Lions -3.5): Dubin concurs — Lions games have been shootouts, and with Carolina likely thin at cornerback, Detroit’s offense (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams) should thrive. Prediction: Lions 34, Panthers 24.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3) (MNF)
– Dajani (Saints -3): Riding the emotional backdrop of the 20th anniversary of the Saints’ return to the Superdome, Dajani leans to New Orleans in what he expects to be a charged home atmosphere. He’s cautious about giving Atlanta too much credit from its upset over Green Bay, and would prefer a Saints moneyline. Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 20.
– Dubin (Push): Dubin sees a close game. The Falcons’ offense has looked better with Michael Penix Jr., while the Saints have been undone by turnovers in tight contests. If New Orleans protects the ball, they should eke out a narrow win. Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns (TNF)
– Dajani (Steelers -2.5): Dajani highlights an odd Cleveland road trend: Pittsburgh hasn’t won in Cleveland since the Roethlisberger era unless Ben was starting. The Browns’ offense has been underwhelming across several metrics, and while Pittsburgh has been inconsistent, Dajani trusts them enough to take the Thursday night upset. Prediction: Steelers 21, Browns 17.
– Dubin (Steelers -2.5): Dubin also doubts Cleveland’s ability to sustain offensive production against Pittsburgh. He gives the edge to the Steelers’ suddenly resurgent offense versus a Browns unit that has been outgained in each game. Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 14.
Fan Take: These Week 4 matchups matter because they reveal which inconsistent teams can stabilize and which early surprises are sustainable — critical for playoff outlooks and coaching/job security. How veterans and returning playmakers (and health issues) affect results will also shape narratives about roster construction and quarterback futures as the season unfolds.
Source: www.cbssports.com
