Sometimes hanging back pays off — and one bettor proved it in Week 4.
Before Sunday’s Chiefs-Raiders game, Kansas City was priced at -235 to win outright. After the Raiders took a 7-0 lead early, the in-game moneyline tightened to -120, and a Caesars Sports customer put down $1.2 million on the Chiefs at that new price. The lead swung several times, but two quick touchdowns (one after a fumble) gave Kansas City a late cushion and a 30-27 victory. That $1.2M wager returned about $2.2M total — roughly $1M in profit — whereas the same stake at the pregame -235 would have paid only about $425,532.
At Hard Rock Bet, someone turned $5 into $7,697.81 on a four-leg Anytime Touchdown Scorer parlay (Kenneth Gainwell, Darius Cooper, Ollie Gordon II and Tory Horton), a ticket that carried astronomical odds of +153,856 (about 1539/1). All four players hit, with Gainwell’s score coming early in the fourth quarter and the others crossing the goal line in the second and third quarters.
Barstool founder Dave Portnoy thought he’d lost a $10,000 five-team moneyline parlay when the Raiders fell to the Chiefs, but he’d actually placed the bet against the spread. Because Las Vegas covered, his ticket survived; the other four legs also worked out, and the parlay at +2533 returned $263,361.41 (about $253,361 in profit) — a lucky error that paid off.
Parlays remain a double-edged sword: a Fanatics Sportsbook customer nearly converted $100 into almost $64,000 on a six-leg ticket that included five touchdown-scorer picks and one prop on Spain’s Lamine Yamal. Five hits were in, but Lions back Jahmyr Gibbs fell one touchdown short of the needed two, wiping out the parlay. Close calls like that are why parlays are called a bookmaker’s best friend — more legs make winning exponentially harder.
By contrast, a FanDuel customer hit a quick, prescient five-leg parlay tied to the Steelers’ opening drive on Thursday night. A $25 wager at +5076 paid $1,294.07 after Pittsburgh engineered a long, scoring drive that checked every box on the ticket — all before the first quarter ended.
On the prediction-market front, Kalshi traders posted big swings: one trader staked $191,295 on the Browns (priced around +138) and collected $455,465 after Cleveland’s last-second win, banking $264,170 in profit. Another trader made $126,000 on the 49ers, while a $106,000 bet on the Buccaneers failed. There are also plenty of examples of massive, low-risk trades that yield tiny returns — for instance, someone risked $276,323 on LSU over McNeese State and earned just $2,870 when LSU dominated.
Several long-shot props paid well for small stakes: Raiders rookie Ian Thomas was +10000 to score the first TD against the Chiefs — a $10 bet would’ve won $1,000 — and Eagles wideout Darius Cooper was 100/1 to score twice; a $10 ticket on that prop returned $1,000. Other small, high-odds props (Roman Wilson +2000 to score first, Jaleel McLaughlin +3000 anytime TD) would have turned $10 bets into $200 and $300, respectively.
The largest single wager reported remains the $1.2M Chiefs play, but many other big-ticket bets moved through sportsbooks. Station Sports took several large Lions bets that went south: a $500,000 moneyline wager on Detroit at -245 lost after the Lions fell to Carolina, and a $200,000 moneyline parlay (Chiefs -220 / Lions -200) also collapsed when Detroit didn’t deliver. Other notable NFL action included $300,000 on the Browns (+127) that paid off, $100,000 on the Jaguars (+120) that won, and several five-figure bets on Colts, Patriots and Lions with mixed results.
In college wagering, a $140,969 stake on heavy favorite Georgia (-3500) over Vanderbilt earned only about $4,027 in profit, while a $73,500 bet on the Alabama-Mississippi State over 61.5 returned roughly $70,000 after Alabama’s big output.
A reminder: these “whale” bettors can absorb big swings and losses in ways most casual bettors cannot. If you’re not in that bracket, keep stakes sensible, set limits, and never wager more than you can afford to lose.
Fan Take: These big in-game and prop bets show how much more dynamic and immediate sports wagering has become — fans are not just watching games but actively shaping market movement with huge sums. For the NFL, that increased engagement can boost viewership and revenue, but it also raises the stakes for sportsbooks and adds pressure for robust integrity and monitoring around in-play betting.
Source: www.foxsports.com
