The betting markets have aligned for the highly anticipated Gold Cup clash between the USA and Mexico, which is set to highlight the July 4th weekend.
This Sunday at 7 p.m., viewers can tune in on Fox as the US men’s national team prepares to face Elt Risk Air.
Scott Shelton from Bet MGM Nevada expressed Friday, “This is definitely the matchup we wanted. Mexico is our biggest rival.”
Shelton provided insights on the championship betting odds for the Gold Cup.
Mexico emerges as favorites
In Wednesday’s semi-finals, Team USA netted two goals within the first 15 minutes to defeat Guatemala 2-1, while Mexico secured a 1-0 victory over Honduras.
BetMGM Nevada initially set the odds for Sunday’s match at Mexico +170 and USA +170, with a draw at +200.
However, Mexico later took the lead in favorability.
“In terms of ticket sales, there is slightly more support for the US, but in terms of betting volume, it’s 3-to-1 in favor of Mexico,” Shelton noted.
Currently, Mexico is seen as a narrow favorite at +145, while the US stands between +190 and +210. This means that a successful $100 bet on Team USA could yield $190 in profit, totaling $290.
It’s crucial to be mindful of the betting conditions.
Wagers on the US in a three-way market don’t carry over into overtime or penalty kicks, meaning that if the match goes beyond regulation time, those bets would be lost.
To mitigate this risk, bettors might want to explore a two-way “trophy lifting” market where Mexico is at -135 and the US is even (+100). This way, a bet remains active regardless of whether the match goes to extra time or penalties.
USA vs. Mexico 2025 Gold Cup Final: Full Match Preview
Draws favor the sportsbooks
In soccer, especially during major international matches, BetMGM Nevada prefers a draw after the standard 90 minutes plus injury time.
Shelton remarked, “At the start of the match, we are hoping for a tie, which is our ideal scenario. Betting is strong on both Mexico and the US.”
In light of this, sportsbooks are likely rooting for this Sunday’s matchup to go into overtime and even penalties if needed. Caesars Sports, in particular, is eager for a patriotic win on the July 4th weekend.
“Draws are always beneficial for the books,” stated Caesars’ soccer trading director Vickerdyke. “Ultimately, the US securing a victory, preferably through penalties, would be most advantageous for us.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst at Fox Sports and a senior reporter at Vegasinsider.com. A notable figure in the sports betting journalism sphere, he resides in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing even in the heat of summer. X: Follow him at @patricke_vegas.
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### Fan Take
This matchup is crucial for soccer fans as it represents the intense rivalry between the USA and Mexico, heightening the stakes for both teams. A thrilling contest not only entertains but could also influence the future dynamics of soccer in North America, making it a must-watch event for enthusiasts.
