Ryan Ohanron
Think back to about a month ago—prior to the ChatGPT screenshot, the ensuing controversy, and the pointed remarks from our coach, Mauricio Pochettino, when he said, “I’m not a mannequin.” This was before Christian Pulisic’s untimely golf outing and before the team faced a humiliating defeat against Switzerland.
What if I had told you that the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) would go unbeaten in their first five Gold Cup matches in that context? You might see standout performances from Diego Luna and Malik Tillman, culminating in a final clash against Mexico.
That should make you feel good, right?
Indeed, many USMNT supporters are quite satisfied. The team has yet to lose and has navigated some challenges. Luna has emerged as a fan favorite, while Tillman is on the verge of joining Bayer Leverkusen for about $40 million. Overall, this summer has been a success even with many top players absent from the squad.
However, there is one glaring absence from this summer and the Pochettino era: the team has yet to deliver a strong performance.
In the 15 matches since Pochettino took charge, we haven’t seen the USMNT perform systematically against serious competition. They’ve capitalized on mistakes from weaker teams, struggled offensively against solid defenses, and faltered against skilled opponents, nearly losing to teams likely not to qualify for the next World Cup.
This Sunday’s final will be Pochettino’s biggest challenge thus far, especially against Mexico, before what could be a packed home crowd at NRG Stadium in Houston. It also marks the team’s last competitive match ahead of the World Cup, making it crucial for Pochettino to demonstrate that they are progressing.
How Does Pochettino Compare to His Predecessor?
Since 2013, USMNT has played 60 tournament matches in CONCACAF through the Nations League and Gold Cup. While this isn’t a perfect metric due to varying opponent quality, it provides a baseline for expectations in tournaments like the Gold Cup.
Statistically, the USMNT has been average:
- 2.4 non-penalty goals per game
- 0.6 goals against
- 14.7 total shots
- 9.6 shots allowed
- 61.6% possession in the final third
- 28.9 penalty area touches
- 14.6 penalty area touches allowed
This is not surprising, given that the US historically outperforms its opponents in key offensive statistics like shots and possession. Yet, Pochettino’s tenure has yielded similar averages:
- 2.0 non-penalty goals per game
- 0.9 goals against
- 12.6 shots
- 8.0 shots allowed
- 63.7% possession in the final third
- 24.7 penalty area touches
- 15.1 penalty area touches allowed
These figures suggest that while the US is having more territorial control under Pochettino, it hasn’t led to improved performance or results. The team is creating fewer goals and opportunities, despite having increased possession and touches in the attacking area.
This could be a matter of randomness, but the current data isn’t promising. By contrast, over the same 60-match span, the USMNT generated an average of 2.0 non-penalty expected goals per game and allowed 0.7. Under Pochettino, their defense averages 0.7, with offense generating just 1.5 expected goals per game.
In recent matches, the only time the US managed to exceed an xg of 0.15 against Costa Rica was due to a missed penalty by Tillman. Overall, the quality of scoring opportunities was relatively even, though the US had more shots, hinting at possible issues in finishing.
In the semi-finals, the US appeared to ease off following a 2-0 lead, which is concerning against a team like Guatemala.
TransferMarket estimates that Guatemala’s entire squad is worth about one-fifth of what Tillman is set to fetch for his transfer, highlighting a stark disparity in quality.
Importance of the Gold Cup Final Against Mexico
Advanced statistics aren’t necessary to understand this situation. In matches against Costa Rica and Guatemala, the USMNT scored four goals but allowed three. Costa Rica is ranked 46th and Guatemala 75th in world football. Even a B-team should expect better results.
On the other hand, Mexico ranks 22nd. Sunday’s match is crucial for Pochettino, marking his first opportunity to win a title coaching this team, but it’s also a moment where they’re seen as underdogs.
Given the depleted US roster and a likely pro-Mexico crowd, the team is facing long odds. According to ESPN BET, Mexico has a 52% chance of winning the trophy.
Oddly, it feels as though everything hinges on this Sunday’s game.
This could feel significant not just because the team is not participating in the World Cup but also due to the potential changes that could happen before next summer. Many factors may influence outcomes beyond decisions made by those in US soccer jerseys.
However, with international soccer having limited opportunities, every match carries significant weight. Each game contributes to a growing picture of the team’s quality.
According to the ELO rating, the USMNT started at 1738, ranked 37th when Pochettino took over. Currently, they’re at 1727 and ranked 40. Teams gain or lose points based on match outcomes, opponent quality, and level of competition.
If the USMNT wins on Sunday, it could signal progress under their new coach. A loss would indicate regression, while a draw (potentially leading to penalties) would keep them at a standstill.
Fan Take: This match holds great significance for soccer fans, as it will showcase whether the USMNT can rise to the occasion under a new coach before the World Cup. A win could ignite hope for the team’s future, while a loss might deepen concerns over their readiness for the world’s biggest stage.
