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It might seem odd after recently highlighting the strength of Fantasy Football schedules in Schedule Matrix, but it’s important to be cautious about relying too much on seasonal metrics. As noted previously, the overall strength of a season’s schedule is best used as a tiebreaker between draft picks, since injuries and changes in team performance often shift outcomes later in the season.
The most effective use of schedule strength is focusing on the early weeks: draft players who are positioned for a strong start and avoid those facing tough early matchups. Running backs and wide receivers with challenging opening schedules often become key trade targets as their values come into question early on.
Let’s break down the toughest early-season matchups by position and highlight players with rough starting slates. For those seeking players with the easiest early schedules, check a different list.
Toughest Early Quarterback Schedules
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) begins against strong defensive teams: Eagles, Giants, Bears, and Packers are among the top defenses for limiting fantasy quarterback points. Despite these tough matchups, interest in Prescott remains high due to new offensive additions and expected pass volume.
- Jared Goff (Lions) faces a grueling start with games against the Packers, Bears, and an improved Baltimore secondary. His schedule is far tougher than last year’s easier slate, which, combined with significant offensive changes, suggests caution for fantasy owners.
Honorable mentions: Geno Smith, Sam Darnold.
Toughest Early Running Back Schedules
D’Andre Swift (Bears) will need to show he’s ready to lead as Chicago’s offensive line gets rebuilt. Early division games against Vikings and Lions pose challenges that could open opportunities for backups like Roshun Johnson if Swift struggles.
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles) is a versatile threat but faces strong defenses from the Chiefs, Rams, and Buccaneers, who all present tough matchups based on past performance. His production may dip in September but he remains a high-ceiling player.
Honorable mentions: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs.
Toughest Early Wide Receiver Schedules
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (Cowboys) start the season against strong defenses including the Eagles and Packers. While Lamb should get enough volume, Pickens could have a more boom-or-bust start compared to Pittsburgh.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp (Seahawks) face a tough pass-blocking line and top-tier pass rushers early on. With less protection than before, these receivers might see their fantasy output suffer unless quarterback play improves.
Honorable mentions: Puka Nacua/Davante Adams, Josh Downs/Michael Pittman Jr.
Toughest Early Tight End Schedules
Travis Kelce (Chiefs), despite offseason concerns about declining production, faces some of the stingiest defenses for tight ends. With increased competition for targets and harsh early matchups, expectations may need adjusting.
- Tucker Kraft (Packers) is a promising young talent, but he must navigate matchups against teams that limited tight ends effectively last season. Given Green Bay’s tendency to spread targets, Kraft might have a subdued start.
Honorable mentions: Jake Ferguson, Cade Otton.
Fan Take: This analysis is crucial for NFL fans who manage fantasy teams, as knowing the toughest early matchups helps shape better draft and trade strategies. It also highlights how early-season performance can significantly impact player value, influencing both fantasy outcomes and real-world team dynamics.
