On Sunday, no. Jannik Sinner of 1 and Carlos Alcaraz of No. 2 will play each other for the Wimbledon title a month after the two face off in an epic battle at French Open.
Alcaraz won in Paris and is the two-time defending champion at Wimbledon. Does that give him an advantage? Our experts place importance on how each one can separate their victory.
What can Alkaraz do to defeat a sinner?
D’Arcy Maine: Alcaraz proves that he can defeat a sinner when his stakes are the highest and knows what he needs to win at Wimbledon. After beating Taylor Fritz in Friday’s semi-finals, Fritz praised Alcaraz’s versatility, his ability to win in so many ways, and how he adjusted on the spot.
These traits are key to Alcalaz’s victory over sinners at the French Open, and they are equally valuable on Sunday. Undefeated in the previous five major finals, Alcaraz has a remarkable calm and battle, especially as he is only 22 years old. If the sinner can continue to hit his way by utilizing the incredible variety, this is his match.
Bill Connelly: The same thing I said before the French Open Final: Keep doing it. Heading towards that match, Barr could essentially “attack the winner with more than 20% of the points and beat the sinners,” and after hitting just 12.9% in the first two sets, Alcaraz was 21.7% in the final three sets (25.0% in the fifth set).
Play a big game and go for the winner, the sinner will crush you into dust. Alcaraz is honestly not incredibly sharp in this tournament, dropping at least one set in four of his six matches and clearing the bar just twice (naturally in his two straight set victory). But he’s pretty good at rising on that opportunity – five slam finals, five wins – he assumes he’s ready to swing big.
Simon Cambers: Do what he always does: find a way to win with the strategies you need. The key to Alkaraz is to use his diversity, as the sinner takes a hard blow with both wings. His drop shots become just as important as the use of serve and bory if opportunities arise. Overall, he needs to serve the same way he did against Fritz in the semi-finals. If he does, he takes a lot of pressure from his second serve. This is important because the sinner will slam anything he sees. Alkaraz has the edge of grass movement, so he tries to misuse it and moves forward as much as he can. If he does, he will control it.
What can a sinner do to defeat Alkaraz?
main: Trust yourself. His elbow shows no signs of injury at this point, so it will mostly become mentally for the sinner on Sunday. It was his first Wimbledon final, and of course he was removed for over a month from what happened in Paris. Naturally there is nerve, and he will probably question him, especially since he is well aware that he hasn’t beaten Alkaraz since 2023.
How can you stop those doubts from creeping up? As when he took a break on Friday in the third set with Novak Djokovic, his forehand began betraying him (with ease), and the sinner continued to fight, scoring points in long rally, and winning five consecutive games, holding back all signs of Djokovic’s momentum. He needs to bring the same mentality and more to Alkaraz.
Apart from his fourth match against Grigor Dimitrov, Sinner has barely been stopped and has not lost his set throughout the two weeks. He has the game and his abilities, and his movements and footwork continue to improve on the grass in every match. He was a look Anywhere In court against Djokovic. If he can bring the same level he’s shown for most of the tournament, and be equally resilient and mentally strong, he has a chance.
Connelly: Dominate the serve. Alkaraz has served better in the course of the tournament, but he earned 64% of his service points in the first three rounds and 76% against the top competition in the next three. With the five sets he dropped to Wimbledon, he essentially allowed his opponents to function just as effectively as he did. This was especially true in the semi-finals against Fritz. Fritz scored 83% of his service points while earning the second set and 74% while sending the fourth set to the tiebreaker.
In the semi-finals against Djokovic, the greatest returnee of all time, Thinner landed his first serve at 74% of his service points, earning 77% of his service points. He almost beat Alcaraz at the French Open, despite landing only 54% of his first serves last month. If he could raise that number to a more normal level and control the game on serve, he would save a lot of trouble.
Camber: Remember how far he has come to this point and tell yourself that he is the underdog. Perhaps the pressure should ease the mental stress that comes in, as Alcaraz’s pressure is that the sinner wins a third consecutive title than he plays in his first Wimbledon final. The ground stroke of a sinner is so difficult that he can bump into anyone and if he can see enough seconds of serve, he really fantasizes a chance.
What’s fascinating is how quickly the sinner shrugged the huge disappointment of holding three match points against Alcaraz in the final at Roland Garros to reach the Wimbledon Final. In some respects, perhaps hitting his elbow against Dimitrov actually helped him. Instead of worrying about Paris’ mental baggage, he focuses on his body and lets him play tennis.
If he returns Alkaraz well first, he will have a great chance here. The grass is difficult this year. Of course, he needs to serve well, and if he can come out a little further than he has, he will continue to pin down Alkaraz.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: The winner will be the person who is physically in the best mood that day after two weeks of pressure tennis on the tough grass court. Clearly, Alcaraz has a psychological advantage at the moment, but since we’ve seen many stages of three big rivals over the course of 20 years, we hope for the same in this exceptional rivalry.
Alkaraz has both grass and rival edges at the moment, but on Sunday the sinner can begin to flip it upside down, especially when his elbow is in good spirits and moves more comfortably on the grass at the end of the two weeks. Tennis is fortunate that these two athletes can lead male tennis and I can’t wait to see. The Roland Garros Final is an impossible act to follow, but let’s take a look at what these two phenomena can generate.
main: The sinner is more motivated than ever, perhaps more confident and endurance than he did in the French Open, but the experience ultimately helps Alcaraz in the toughest moments of the match. I don’t think it’s going to surpass the five-hour mark like the final in Paris, but I think it’s easy to go to the decision set, and it prefers Alcaraz, who has a ridiculous 14-1 record with five setters and 10-1 in the 3-hour and 50-minute matches (compared to the sinner’s 0-7). Five Alcaraz, a dramatic, highlight-filled set.
Connelly: On the surface of nature, where Alkaraz has clear advantages over sinners (and everyone else in the world), it feels like the sinner has established many positions in a short time. He actually scored one point over Alcaraz in the French open battle and wobbled with injuries against Dimitrov in the fourth round, and fortunately, he has been effectively automated ever since.
The ceiling of Alcaraz was basically higher than we’ve ever seen, and the way he reminded him of absolute perfection at the moment he needed in Paris was awe-inspiring. However, the sinner is very stable and he still appears to be improving. Four sinners.
Camber: I chose Alcaraz first, but considering his two titles in a row here, it was hardly a stretch. But he shows every time why he is the best player in the world on the grass, he moves better than anyone, he mixes things incredibly well, he has the charisma that leads the crowd to his side from the first ball.
The sinner is an incredible player and no one hits the ball hard. But on the grass, the subtle thing is that it needs to fall more into Alkaraz’s wheelhouse. Of course, you can see it for a long time, but the fact that he won the last five matches is a huge psychological advantage for him. Even if the sinner shrugged brilliantly to shrugged brilliantly at what happened in Paris, Alcaraz has the spiritual boost to win from match points in his pocket. It could be five, but in four tight sets, I would say Alcaraz.
