After so many permutations a year ago, 2025 was supposed to be a quiet year at the forefront of the driver market.
Lewis Hamilton began his stupid season before the previous campaign began with a move from Mercedes to Ferrari, with the focus being on Max Verstappen and Red Bull before Carlos Sign had sorted out his future. And over the course of this year, six rookies have been added to the grid.
All of that move, and the impact of knock-ons for the majority of drivers who are trading multi-years to carry them in 2026, should mean that Cadillac has almost free rule when it comes to choosing their first driver lineup ahead of their debut next year. This allows the TWG Motorsports-Run team to weigh their options and have plenty of time and space.
However, there is currently more uncertainty than expected regarding many seats, and many of them could be linked. Of course, it all starts with Verstappen. If he decides to leave the Red Bull team that appears to be in decline – the slide, which was probably a key part of the reason for Christian Horner’s removal two weeks ago, seems like Mercedes is his most likely destination, and the future switch to Aston Martin has been quiet in recent months.
The top impression was that while the end of the season’s moves are not out of the question, it is likely that from 2026 onwards Verstappen will have certainty at their respective competitive levels across the grid. Despite being confident in the Mercedes Power Unit project now, it’s still a speculation game.
However, the potential availability of Verstappen in 18 months is still having a major impact on the market. Focusing on Mercedes for that means we won’t lock either George Russell or Kimi Antonelli beyond the end of next season.
At this stage they are not confirmed beyond the current campaign, but you’d imagine Antonelli has an option as Mercedes invested in the future of a talented rookie. However, Russell is not too keen to sign a deal that opens the door for Verstappen to be replaced within a year if he jumps the ship.
Outside of the Red Bull-owned team, the other vacant seats for next season will be paralleled with Alpine’s Pierre Guthrie, and given that it will become a Mercedes-powered team, there are links to the Toto Wolf outfit that could have an impact on the driver.
For example, if Mercedes gets a Verstappen, one of the current drivers would be attractive to Alpine and Antonelli could lend it to you. This allows for an agreement to be reached based on power unit costs and bring Italians back to fold in the future.
Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez are focusing on F1 returns with Cadillac. Carl Bingham/Getty Images
As hypothetical for now, in such a scenario, two young drivers with a recent F1 experience, Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan, may take into account Cadillac thinking.
Russell will also remain without a contract next year, but there is always a slight chance that he will be able to reach the open market, and he is clearly appealing to Cadillac. However, he also draws interest from other teams that he didn’t expect to be available. That could lead to further movement.
At this stage, all of the above is speculative, and the most likely situation needs to be clearly warned of the fact that Mercedes’ lineup has not been changed and that the Barstappen has been stuck to Red Bull for another year. However, it clouds the market slightly, given the potentially different outcomes involving four-time world champions and multiple race winners.
And that means that Cadillac can even see it taking more time when it comes to finalizing the lineup.
There will be talks with many drivers with the Formula 1 experience, with Sergio Perez and Valtelli Bottas appearing at the top of the list of at least one of the two driving towards Cadillac next season. However, the proposal that the deal has already been agreed is premature, and there are sources showing that there was no detailed discussion of the length and terms of the contract with either driver.
It could move faster as we head towards summer vacation, but as we have seen in the past, it tends to be a front running team that can make the first decision before moving further down the order. It worked particularly well for Williams last year, with Hamilton’s move making Sainz available, with both Mercedes and Red Bull choosing to chase after the Spaniards.
Other teams may also be interested in Perez and Bottas, but as highlighted above, there is little chance that they can offer seats in 2026 unless there is a significant move caused by Verstappen. Both are understood to be enthusiastic about this project, and undoubtedly, all the younger options are all about Jak Crawford, Zhou Guanyu, Mick Schumacher, Felipe Dragovich, Fred Vesti and more.
There are a huge number of items on Cadillac’s job list. If that’s what you want, driver pairing can remain one of the lower priorities until it’s more certain with Mercedes and Red Bull. The latter team could even release another experienced option in 2026, and in Racing Bulls, depending on the direction they take with Verstappen (if he stayed).
Team Principal Graeme Loudon was out of the cycle of negotiating drivers last year, where Cadillac didn’t have a confirmed entry, but there’s a strong pool of talent that it can choose, whether it prefers two experienced drivers or pairs with the younger options.
There’s nothing to say that the lineup isn’t solidified in the near future, but if it doesn’t, the pool could be deeper the longer the American teams get.
