Ryan Ohanron
Hugo Ekitike could become a superstar or turn out to be a major disappointment.
At 23, the French forward is a reflection of the Transfer Score’s varied interpretations, revealing much about the observer’s biases in sports analysis.
Ekitike embodies contradictions more than any player I can recall: he is a remarkable athlete who simultaneously displays physical limitations, a statistical star with no extensive goal-scoring history, and a young talent lacking substantial experience despite already performing in a top league. His early success wasn’t purely luck; he arrived at the top tier through evident merit.
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Following his time at Newcastle, Ekitike is set to join Liverpool. The defending Premier League champions excel in the transfer market, often signing players tipped to become world-class forwards, yet they also take risks on those who may not pan out.
Hugo Ekitike embodies both the misconceptions surrounding player development and the smart strategies employed by adept clubs.
What could go wrong?
In the NBA, players deemed “unicorns”—those with unique skill sets—are highly coveted. This term was popularized by Kevin Durant when referring to Kristaps Porzingis, a 7’3 Latvian who could both protect the basket and shoot three-pointers, a rarity in the sport.
Fast forward nearly a decade, and every NBA team seems to have a unicorn, especially successful squads that boast several of these versatile players.
Soccer has yet to experience a similar trend, but if it does, Hugo Ekitike—a 6’3 Frenchman with remarkable dribbling skills and speed—might become a key figure leading this change. Recognizing his abilities doesn’t require deep soccer knowledge; he stands out.
It’s no surprise scouts are drawn to him. Ekitike fits the traditional mold: he’s physically impressive, skillful, and significantly faster than many competitors. More importantly, he’s still developing—coaches may envision enhancing his skills further despite his current slight build at around 170 pounds.
Historically, scouts and coaches have often favored athleticism over actual football skills, which can lead to poor evaluations. Instead of solely focusing on players who contribute to team success, teams may dream of molding athletic players into valuable assets, despite the time constraints involved in development.
Moreover, the peak performance window for footballers is shorter than we like to admit, typically arriving earlier in their careers, making it critical for potential stars like Ekitike to show immediate results. Although he had a decent season at Eintracht Frankfurt, it marked only his first real outing at the professional level.
Diving into his statistics, Ekitike scored 14 non-penalty goals and provided eight assists over 2,563 league minutes, delivering a solid 0.77 goals per 90 minutes. Among players who logged at least 2,000 minutes in the Premier League last season, only his future teammates, Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak from Newcastle, had similar output. However, unpredictability looms, making it uncertain whether Ekitike’s promising performance will linger.
Currently honing his abilities, Ekitike has amassed 3,000 minutes of play across his career—starting at Reims, moving to Paris Saint-Germain, and then contributing to Frankfurt in the 2023-24 season. Still, nearly half of his previous 63 appearances had come off the bench, providing limited chances to accumulate goals.
Yet, the biggest concern remains the league in which he shined. The Bundesliga is distinct from the Premier League and other major leagues. How do all five leagues compare in terms of average goals and physicality?
With more transitional moments and space for attackers, the Bundesliga allows forwards to thrive in scenarios where they might struggle in the Premier League. Consequently, forwards transitioning from Germany often face challenges in adapting to the physical demands of the Premier League.
– Assessing significant summer transfers
– Why did Liverpool choose to sign Ekitike, and what can he bring to the Premier League?
However, Ekitike isn’t just coming from any Bundesliga side; he’s arriving from Frankfurt, a club with a spotted history of misfitting attackers transitioning to larger teams.
Recent seasons have seen several of their forwards struggle after leaving:
- Redal Redaling: 24 years old, €95 million to PSG
- Luka Jovic: 21, €61 million to Real Madrid
- Sebastian Haller: 25, €50 million to West Ham
- Jesper Lindstrom: 23, €30 million to Naples
- Andre Silva: 25, €23 million to RB Leipzig
These five players have collectively transferred for over €250 million yet only one managed double-digit goal seasons at their new clubs. Notably, three required loan spells, underscoring the risks involved in betting on such transfers.
What could go right?
Although there’s an overwhelming focus on expected goals (xG) in the analytics community, the concept often isn’t well understood among broader audiences and teams. Yet, it remains a key predictive measure for future goal contributions both at individual and team levels.
Analyzing Lionel Messi’s success at Barcelona, out of his 512 goals, only 20% stemmed from his finishing skills, highlighting the impact of various contributing factors and opportunities.
When utilizing this data against competitors, teams can foresee a player’s eventual regression based on their historic performances. Conversely, they tend to scout undervalued players who create numerous xG opportunities but may struggle to convert them into actual goals.
For instance, Manchester United spent over €150 million this summer to acquire Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, who significantly outperformed their xG last season. Meanwhile, Ekitike recorded 14 non-penalty goals but fell short of his expected 19.3.
Thus, if there’s a chance for a breakout season, Ekitike might just be it. He demonstrates a unique combination of skill and production, averaging 0.91 xG + xA per 90 minutes, positioning him alongside elite contributors from top European leagues.
Still, Ekitike’s potential valuation is complex. While effective goal creation is crucial, teams sometimes overlook the surrounding trade-offs, as seen with top players like Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland, who have drawn attention for their lower contribution to overall team dynamics.
However, Ekitike stands out as a well-rounded player actively involved in pressing, reliable passing, and high-touch dribbling, making him a versatile asset to any lineup.
2:01
Highlights of Hugo Ekitike’s goals and assists from his time at Frankfurt
With his impending move to Liverpool, ESPN revisits Ekitike’s standout moments from last season.
According to Michael Imburgio’s evaluation model, Ekitike provided a goal value of 8.23, surpassing average players in his position. This statistic, tracked since the 2017-18 season, is the highest recorded for any Bundesliga player under 22.
Players like Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham, who achieved extraordinary recognition after moving to bigger clubs, underscore Ekitike’s potential. If Liverpool views him as the next elite star, they might shell out around €80 million, straddling the gap between fitted high-risk investments and promising future stars.
Fan Take: This news is crucial for soccer enthusiasts as it highlights the delicate balance between talent and risk in player transfers. Ekitike’s journey could reshape perceptions of young talent in the sport, inspiring clubs to invest wisely in the future.
