Each summer, intense speculation arises about which MotoGP riders might lose their spots on the starting grid. Contract negotiations for the upcoming season happen around this time, causing anxiety among underperforming riders about their future. Currently, Luca Marini, Franco Morbidelli, and Jack Miller do not have confirmed deals for 2026. However, contract clauses can allow teams to swap riders if they wish.
Toprak Razgatlioglu has joined Pramac Yamaha along with promising Moto2 talents. Experts at Crash.NET are predicting who might be the next to lose their seat.
Lewis Duncan explains that Miguel Oliveira, despite having a history of race wins including five victories with KTM, has struggled after moving to Aprilia in 2023. Injuries and inconsistent performance have marked his time, and his two-year contract with Pramac Yamaha seems almost unfair compared to teammate Jack Miller’s one-year deal. With no top-10 finishes this year and ongoing injury issues, Oliveira has not demonstrated the reliability Yamaha needs for bike development.
Peter McLaren notes that Oliveira and Somkiat Chantra sit at the bottom of the World Championship points, with Federico only scoring 6 points and Chantra just 1. Both have had setbacks—the former with injuries, the latter with the challenge of adapting to the Honda RC213V. Their MotoGP futures remain uncertain, especially as Razgatlioglu’s signing at Pramac and Moto2 riders linked to LCR Honda hint at possible replacements.
Alex Whitworth adds that few riders have been consistently impressive this season, with even notable racers like Enea Bastianini only showing podium form sporadically. Oliveira’s average performance makes it hard to justify keeping him over potential replacements like Manuel Gonzalez.
Derry Munikartono highlights Somkiat Chantra’s situation, noting that while his promotion to MotoGP as the first Thai rider is historic and backed by Idemitsu’s commitment to Asian talent, emotional significance doesn’t ensure results. Chantra’s rookie year has been marked by struggles, with only one points finish (15th place at Assen) and a visible difficulty adjusting to Honda’s challenging bike. Although his seat is somewhat protected by sponsorship, Honda is considering more competitive options, including Brazil’s Moto2 rider Diogo Moreira. LCR team boss Lucio Cecchinello has indicated talks with Honda about the future of the second LCR seat will happen soon, and unless Chantra significantly improves, his MotoGP career might be short.
Jordan Moreland points out that Oliveira’s results with both Aprilia and Yamaha have been disappointing in recent years. While injuries and incidents have been factors, he has not consistently scored points or broken into the top 10, ranking 25th with just six points this season—clearly insufficient for a rider of his caliber.
Fan Take: This contract season is critical for MotoGP as it signals shifts that could redefine team dynamics and rider lineups. For fans, these changes bring the promise of fresh talent and exciting competition, but also the tough reality of veteran riders facing potential exits.
