I’ve been involved in sports betting for 15 years and rarely watch the game after placing bets. Over time, I’ve gained a deep understanding of how betting markets shift and grow, including both established and emerging markets. One recently popular market is a straightforward YES/NO wager on whether NFL teams will make the playoffs. Though this option appeared sporadically before, it is now widely available for all teams and remains open well into the season.
I find this betting market especially promising because you can exploit consistent factors like weak team departments, uneven schedules, and injury disparities. While these elements influence the odds, the key is spotting when a team’s market is skewed either too heavily or too lightly. Here are three NFL playoff futures bets I believe are worth considering right now:
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs (-180 at BetMGM)
The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season based on opponents’ expected win totals. They finished last in their division last year with an opponent win rate of 41.5%, dealt with many injuries, and hope to be healthier this year. Their run defense ranked near the bottom last season, but they added elite defensive line prospect Mykal Williams and retained defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. Despite being ranked 29th in points allowed last year, their second-worst rank in points allowed per game is a more optimistic indicator. The offense continues to operate efficiently under Kyle Shanahan, and QB Brock Purdy’s play style combined with a strong offensive line should keep him healthy. I prefer betting on their playoff chances rather than their division due to the NFC West’s strength and the weaker likelihood of meetings tipping the scale. It’s typical to see three of four NFC West teams making the playoffs, while the NFC East and North teams face tougher schedules.
Chicago Bears to miss the playoffs (-190)
The Bears face the seventh toughest schedule in the NFL, including six games against a strong NFC North. With a new head coach and a second-year quarterback, I’m inclined to fade this team. The Bears attempt to play fast-paced, spread-out offense around Caleb Williams, but winning in Chicago’s harsh weather favors strong defense and running games—neither of which the Bears have. The Bears’ QB has never passed for 4,000 yards in a season, reflecting the challenging conditions. Historically, the best Bears teams have elite defense and solid rushing, which this team lacks. Their red zone efficiency was only 51.4% last year, with frequent field goals instead of touchdowns. I’m skeptical their new coaching can significantly improve this, making this a good fade pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs (+165)
Jacksonville is an intriguing team to back this offseason, with potential breakouts and candidates for awards like Coach of the Year (Liam Cohen), Rookie of the Year (Travis Hunter), and even an MVP longshot (Trevor Lawrence). I’m interested in multiple positive-odds bets on this team. The AFC South is the weakest division; the Colts still haven’t named their starting QB, the Titans have a rookie QB and second-year head coach, and the Texans face offensive line issues and injuries. Lawrence benefits from the threat of WR Brian Thomas Jr. (1,282 yards, 10 TDs) and top draft pick Travis Hunter. The dual threat of RBs Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne should enhance play-calling variety and overall depth.
Fan Take:
This new playoff futures betting market offers fans a strategic way to engage with the NFL season beyond traditional bets, highlighting key team dynamics that impact playoff chances. For NFL enthusiasts, understanding these factors deepens appreciation of team challenges and opportunities, potentially transforming how fans follow and bet on the sport.
