Can a driver with a 36-point difference and 116 points remaining really be a favorite to win the World Championship?
Although mathematically not, Max Verstappen’s progress towards the top of the rankings appears to be inexorable. In what was once a private battle, how McLaren drivers deal with the robbers could decide the fate of the championship. As a result, with four grands prix (and two sprints) remaining, Verstappen has somehow become both an outsider with nothing to lose and a man tantalizingly within reach of a fifth title.
There has never been a title match like this. If Verstappen were to pull it off, having trailed by 104 points after the Dutch Grand Prix, it would be the most dramatic turnaround in history. This is measured not only by total points, but also by adjusting the numbers to account for different point systems over the years. Just being talked about as a realistic threat with four tournaments left is a remarkable accomplishment for him, and at worst it means he’s headed for heroic failure. At best, it could be something really great.
But despite all the improvements Red Bull have made and the fact that Verstappen was able to close the points gap even on a relatively disappointing weekend like Mexico, where Lando Norris’ McLaren dominated and could only manage third place, there are more powerful weapons in his arsenal. It’s the fact that he’s Max Verstappen and he’s been here many times before. This is effectively a free hit for him, who has been on the decline just two months ago and has already won four titles, and he doesn’t need it as much as Norris or Piastri.
That’s not criticizing the lack of desire, just that he’s in a completely different place psychologically. For both McLaren drivers, this is a potential culmination of all their hard work and a potentially career-defining peak that will earn them lifetime membership at the club, which at the time only had 35 members. At the end of the day, McLaren can expect to remain a dominant force in F1, but with impending power unit and chassis regulation changes there is no guarantee that will be the case, and both sides will fear this may be their only chance. That’s the big difference between Verstappen, who’s been there and done it, and who ends up just climbing the same old mountain he’s climbed so many times before.
Plus, like the mechanical cowboy played by Yul Brynner in the original Westworld, Verstappen keeps coming no matter what. Championship fights are stressful at the best of times, and how the protagonists handle that pressure, even fear, can change the fight in one direction or another.
But if Verstappen is an immovable object that other players must resist, Norris and Piastri are on ever-changing sand. Piastri had long been the frontrunner. He took the lead in April, and when his victory at the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August netted him 34 points, there were calls among F1 fans for him to be crowned. Although the job was not completed, it gave him a distinct advantage in control. Even with Piastri’s Baku debacle, where he crashed in qualifying and on the first lap of the race, Norris’ hard work meant he was only eight points behind him, making his subsequent five-event run an easy one.
But everything changed for him the moment he finished fifth in Mexico, one point behind Norris. Now, it’s a simple battle and no matter how you solve the equation, the better McLaren driver will win the intra-team battle over the final four weeks. What’s more difficult is how to break down the strategy if, say, Piastri is ahead of Norris in a race but Verstappen is in sight. And this kind of question can lead drivers to strange behavior.
Likewise, Norris’ position has now changed. He is essentially on an equal footing with his teammates and also needs to factor Verstappen into his calculations. While playing catch-up over the past few months, he has looked increasingly confident and convincing. Will things change now that he is even a slight favorite? When it comes to this scenario, it’s easy to play Tara’s psychology, and mental strength plays an important role. After all, the big challenge in elite sport is to follow the process and execute your skills as if nothing is at stake, when in reality everything is at stake. The idea of a “clutch player” is not someone who ups their game when it really matters, but someone who plays as if everything is at stake when it really isn’t. This is why drivers always deploy the cliché of taking it one race at a time. As Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies recently pointed out, teams are doing the same.
Piastri’s early-season advantage has disappeared and the Australian is now in a head-to-head battle with teammate Norris, but Verstappen will also need to be kept in mind. Zack Mauger/Getty Images
“Championship standings are results,” Mekies said. It doesn’t change anything for us. Whether it’s near or far, we want to come to the race track as a team and leave knowing we’ve got everything we’ve got to get absolutely everything and fight for the win. ”
It’s a simple statement, and it’s easier to execute as a team than as an individual driver. However, that is not the only factor. It’s the interaction between humans and technology that makes motorsport so fascinating. Consider Piastri’s struggles in Mexico. Low grip conditions made it difficult for him. It’s true that it played into Norris’ strengths and his own weaknesses, but given the 6-tenth difference in qualifying and a significant lack of race pace, how much, if any, will it affect his reaction to the pressure of the title?
What about Baku’s mistakes? What happens at Interlagos this weekend will help answer that question, given that although Norris was faster in dry conditions last year in terms of fundamental pace, this track shouldn’t inherently pose a problem for him. Looking from the outside, this cannot be answered with certainty. It’s probably the same for Piastri, even though there is a measurable physiological response to stress that may provide hints to him and those around him. Pressure may not have been a trivial factor, but the situation could change completely by changing from being the pursuer to being chased.
Of particular interest are the variables involved in the remaining events. Last year in Brazil, McLaren was comfortably fastest in the dry, but struggled in the wet, having to replace it with a higher downforce rear wing and, most importantly, locking up its brakes. Had last year’s weather remained dry, Norris could have won the Sprint and Grand Prix doubles (Piastri had to miss out on Saturday’s race), but rain meant Verstappen took an unexpected victory from the 17th race.th on the grid. With such an ‘act of God’ potentially changing the championship and the possibility of rain, McLaren drivers have every reason to be skeptical of the current weather forecast for this weekend.
However, McLaren could have addressed those weaknesses and turned things around. What happened last time is not necessarily a good predictor of what will happen next time. Interlagos is a circuit where a driver’s skill set and adaptability can reach breaking point, and where the unexpected tends to happen.
Of the three tracks that conclude the season, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are the most obviously McLaren territory. All of Red Bull’s improvements could be a good opportunity for Norris and Piastri. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is the real wild card. Considering last year, it’s safe to say that it could be as much of a nightmare for McLaren as it was then. However, tire graining was an issue back then, so this year’s tires have been modified to withstand this. This brought about major changes in Mexico. In Mexico, McLaren has grown, but if Groening in 2024 had been a factor, it might not have been as successful, but it wasn’t.
Then there are the issues of track temperature and the condition of the other leading teams, with Mercedes once again leading the pack with many people’s support. And you can’t even try to extrapolate last year’s Las Vegas performance to 2025, given that Red Bull is still troubleshooting issues with the car. That means it’s very difficult to determine exactly how the weekend will affect the situation. Even the team themselves won’t be able to make reliable predictions.
The almost infinite complexity of F1 is what makes it so fascinating. The fate of the world championship can, and probably will, be determined in part by factors completely outside the control of teams and drivers. Sometimes such pivot points work to their advantage or against their driving toolbox, but once again they attract Verstappen’s attention. After all, even if Red Bull still can’t match McLaren overall, no driver is better equipped to deal with it than he is.
But he also gives Norris and Piastri a big chance. No matter how undesirable his presence is in their battles, they have a chance to stop him and become champions after defeating their own teammates. In that regard, Verstappen is making their lives difficult, but ironically his presence may only enhance their eventual victory. Also, given that there is a third party who can steal the entire team’s thunder, it could help ensure conflicts within the team are controlled.
The game is radically different from what they played earlier in the season, and potentially that could actually be to their benefit. That is, if they can stop him. And the best way to do that, as always, is to go out and win. Sometimes winning a championship is really easy.
