I’m back with an exciting race that captures the nation’s attention and is on track to become a classic in 2025. Vauban is making a third appearance under a new team, paired with former stablemate Abould, while champion trainer Chris Waller leads the charge with five runners. For the first time ever, an American-trained horse will compete, with Half Yours as my top pick, proudly representing the locals.
There are plenty of other interesting races throughout the day, and if you’re uncertain who to back, don’t worry. Here’s a rundown of the standout horses and some value picks for Tuesday’s 10-race card at the stunning Flemington Racecourse.
Race 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m), 10:45am
Only three of the 14 runners have race experience, with rain affecting the track, making conditions tricky on Cup Day’s opening race. Tornado Valley, held up at a crucial time in the Debutante Stakes, showed strong finishing power when clear. Among the newcomers, Carnevale and Diameter impressed in their trials, and Brazen DeChambeau displayed solid effort in a jump-out at Cranbourne.
Top Picks:
2. Tornado Valley ($7.00)
3. Brazen DeChambeau ($7.00)
5. Diameter ($6.00)
4. Carnevale ($4.80)
8. Free Flying ($11.00)
Race 2 – MA Service Grand Handicap (2000m), 11:20am
Mining looks like a tough contender in good form with a favorable inside draw and should handle the soft ground well. Brave Miss’s recent win at Cranbourne was strong, and he also performed well in previous high-level races. Party Crasher might improve after a less impressive first run.
Top Picks:
3. McDan ($3.90)
7. Brave Miss ($6.50)
10. Party Crasher ($7.00)
14. Giggenbach ($7.50)
Race 3 – TAB Trophy (1800m), 12:00pm
There’s good value here, with Snitz Sonic showing his best in late stages of past races including a win at Echuca. Arabian Prince missed the Victoria Derby but looks competitive over 1800m. Champagne Hero and Various Gravy Sauces are wildcards, while Island Boy offers a longshot chance.
Top Picks:
8. Snitz Sonic ($11.00)
4. Various Gravy Sauces ($4.60)
9. Arabian Prince ($3.80)
3. Champagne Hero ($4.60)
6. Island Boy ($41.00)
Race 4 – Schweppervescence Plate (1000m), 12:40pm
Bold Secret is developing well by his third start and could improve greatly with a softer run this time. Palaton steps into tougher company but has James Macdonald aboard and looks dangerous. Street Artist, in winning form with the Friedman team, remains a solid contender.
Top Picks:
9. Bold Secret ($9.00)
4. Street Artist ($4.40)
2. Palaton ($2.70)
- Pine of Aleppo ($7.50)
Race 5 – Australian Heritage Cup (2800m), 1:20pm
Golden Century seems primed for the longer 2800m distance and favors the wide Flemington track. Don Diego de Vega has been consistent but needs a race that suits him better; he has a good draw and handles soft going well.
Top Picks:
10. Golden Century ($4.80)
3. Don Diego de Vega ($8.50)
9. Ritz Stock ($4.40)
8. Arugamama ($6.50)
Race 6 – Kirin Ichiban Plate (1800m), 1:55pm
St. George impressed first-up at Seymour and should excel on Flemington’s long straights. Puglia made a strong return after a year off, winning from the back, and Athanatos is in solid form, having performed well in his lead-up races.
Top Picks:
5. St. George ($4.40)
6. Athanatos ($5.00)
3. Kingswood ($4.60)
12. Real Class ($12.00)
Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3:00pm
The Caulfield Cup sets the tone, with the big grey Presage Nocturne charging impressively and expected to improve over 3200m on the rain-affected Flemington track. Brave King, wearing blinkers, won the Caulfield Cup impressively and aims to capitalize on favorable conditions. Half Yours, despite a long campaign, offers a strong chance on wet ground, while Absurdity looks map-ready from gate four. Irish star Al Rifa faces a tough task carrying top weight but remains a key contender. European 3-year-old Fürtur fits the profile of successful past winners and could offer good value. Buckaroo brings proven Group 1 class but needs an ideal ride over the longer trip. Flatten the Curve, Tranzino, and Vauban are other interesting prospects.
Top Picks:
6. Presage Nocturne ($9.00)
24. Valiant King ($8.50)
17. Fürtur ($26.00)
9. Absurdity ($18.00)
- Al Rifa ($9.00)
- Half Yours ($7.00)
Race 8 – Amanda Elliott (1400m), 3:50pm
Game lost out on luck in his debut but bounced back to claim his maiden, showing toughness. Naval Pilot, a strong runner-up recently, drops to 1400m which suits him well. Bakash is continuing good form and excels on wet tracks.
Top Picks:
15. Ludlum ($5.00)
2. Naval Pilot ($6.50)
4. Bakash ($5.50)
8. Bill Master ($9.00)
Race 9 – Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m), 4:35pm
Surfing Bird dominated at Caulfield, winning by four lengths with a strong finish and is seen as a top contender. Ponderowie offers solid value after improving with each run and showing speed at Flemington. Bossy Nick finally gets a soft track that suits her.
Top Picks:
14. Ponderowie ($17.00)
15. Surfing Bird ($2.60)
10. Gumdrop ($7.50)
5. Bossy Nick ($13.00)
Race 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (1400m), 5:15pm
Savage was unlucky last race but showed elite form and should be well-suited here. Sunshine My Pocket impressed late last time despite starting from the back, and Dollar closed well, indicating he can bounce back.
Top Picks:
7. Sunshine My Pocket ($7.00)
3. Dollar ($6.00)
12. Persian Spirit ($8.00)
14. Heel Ripping ($9.00)
Fan Take:
This upcoming day at Flemington offers thrilling prospects with a mix of seasoned champions, rising stars, and intriguing outsiders—a perfect showcase of what keeps horse racing exhilarating. Fans should watch for standout performances that could shape the future of major races, including the iconic Melbourne Cup, reinforcing horse racing’s enduring appeal and excitement.
