Despite ongoing labor disputes and negotiations between the WNBA and its players, the league is proceeding with the WNBA Draft Lottery scheduled for Sunday, November 23. The event will be aired on ESPN at 6:30 p.m. ET and will involve the league’s five lottery teams determining their draft positions for 2026.
The lottery includes teams that missed the playoffs in the previous season. This year, the WNBA has maintained its eight-team playoff format but expanded the league to 13 teams, resulting in five teams participating in the lottery. This is the only season featuring five teams in the lottery, as the league is set to expand to 15 teams in 2026, with seven teams slated to enter the lottery next season.
Draft odds are calculated based on team performance over the last two seasons, with the worst-performing team having the highest chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick. Similar to the NBA, teams are assigned certain four-digit number combinations proportional to their odds, and a lottery ball draw determines the winning numbers. The team with the matching numbers gets the top pick. There is also a tie-breaker for the No. 2 pick, and picks No. 3 to No. 5 are assigned based on the teams’ records from worst to best over two seasons.
This year’s draft is unique as the first two picks after the lottery will go to expansion teams Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire. The rest of the first round order will be based on the season results of the other teams.
Here is the order and odds for the teams in the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery:
– Dallas Wings have a 42% chance of securing the No. 1 pick, with a 19-65 record over the past two seasons. They are likely to hold the top pick for the second consecutive year. The Wings previously secured the No. 1 pick in 2025, choosing Paige Bueckers, and last had the top pick in 2021.
– Minnesota Lynx (via Chicago Sky) have a 26.1% chance of the top pick. Although the Chicago Sky hold the pick, it belongs to the Lynx due to a trade. The Lynx, with a strong 64-20 record over two seasons, are favored for the No. 2 pick and have a history of drafting stars like Maya Moore and Seimone Augustus.
– Seattle Storm (via Los Angeles Sparks) have a 16.7% chance of the first pick. The Storm gained their pick through a trade and have a rich draft history including stars like Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird. Their recent picks include Jewell Lloyd and Brianna Stewart.
– Washington Mystics have a 9.7% chance of the top pick. The Mystics have drafted well in recent years, featuring promising rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen. Historically, they have only had the No. 1 pick once.
– Connecticut Sun (via Chicago Sky) have a 5.5% chance of the No. 1 pick. The Sun are a strong playoff team, making them the least likely lottery winner, more likely to pick fifth overall. The Chicago Sky have never secured the No. 1 pick but have had high picks in previous drafts.
Fan Take: This draft lottery is crucial as it sets the stage for the WNBA’s future stars and impacts teams’ trajectories for years. With expansion teams entering and an evolving league structure, these draft picks could reshape the competitive balance and enhance the sport’s growth and visibility.
