Four drivers will be cut from the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs on Saturday night during the Bristol Night Race, which starts at 7:30 p.m. ET and is the third race in a 10-race playoff series. Out of the 16 drivers competing, 12 will move on to the second round.
The intensity of Bristol’s typical chaos has been missing recently, with three of the last four races featuring six or fewer caution flags. This season’s spring race at Bristol was especially calm, with only one caution plus two mandatory stage breaks, and the final 235 laps ran caution-free.
Here’s what the current playoff picture looks like going into the race:
Locked into the second round:
- Denny Hamlin (secured by winning at Gateway)
- Chase Briscoe (secured by winning at Darlington)
- Kyle Larson (holding 2,103 points)
Hamlin and Briscoe have guaranteed spots in the next round due to their wins, and Larson just needs to participate in Saturday’s race, currently holding a 59-point lead to advance.
In good shape to advance:
4. Bubba Wallace (2,093 points)
5. Ryan Blaney (2,085)
6. William Byron (2,082)
7. Tyler Reddick (2,080)
8. Christopher Bell (2,075)
9. Chase Elliott (2,071)
These six drivers are relatively secure. Wallace needs only seven points to advance, Blaney 15 points, and the others up to Elliott need 29 points to ensure they move on no matter what.
On the bubble:
10. Joey Logano (2,064)
11. Ross Chastain (2,062)
12. Austin Cindric (2,054)
These drivers are fighting for the last three spots in Round 2 and will face pressure from those just below them. Logano struggles at Bristol, not cracking the top 20 since 2021, while Chastain has had solid performances, and Cindric has yet to break higher than 13th here.
Needing a strong run:
13. Austin Dillon (2,043)
14. Shane van Gisbergen (2,039)
Dillon has had some top-10 finishes at Bristol and will need to deliver again or hope those ahead falter. Van Gisbergen, despite leading with four wins this year, had a rough spring Bristol race with a crash, making his progression into the next round uncertain.
Likely must-win:
15. Alex Bowman (2,019)
16. Josh Berry (2,009)
Both have slim chances to advance without winning, but it’s improbable. Bowman has struggled in the playoffs so far, and Berry has faced tough setbacks including a crash and car trouble that have hurt his chances.
Fan Take: This Bristol race is pivotal, setting the stage for fierce competition as the field narrows from 16 to 12. For NASCAR fans, it highlights the tension and unpredictability of playoff racing, where every lap could disrupt the standings and shape the championship battle.
