For the first time since 2021, the drivers’ championship will drop to at least the penultimate race of the season, with McLaren’s Lando Norris likely to win the title at the Qatar Grand Prix.
For the past three years, the champion has already been decided at this point, ever since this epic season ended with Max Verstappen clinching his first world championship in a final race showdown with Lewis Hamilton.
Verstappen won each time, clinching the 2022 title in Japan with four races remaining and wrapping up the 2023 championship before the race in which Qatar clinched the October slot. Last year’s championship was decided in Verstappen’s favor in Las Vegas, when Norris was the final driver.
This time, Norris arrived in Qatar with a 24-point lead over teammates Oscar Piastri and Verstappen. With Lusail hosting another sprint weekend, a total of 33 points are at stake, with Norris needing just two points ahead of his two rivals over the weekend and just one point ahead if he wins Sunday’s Grand Prix, earning him a further 25 points in Abu Dhabi.
A top seven finish in the sprint would guarantee Norris the championship with a win in the main race, regardless of Piastri and Verstappen’s placement.
Winning the Grand Prix is crucial, and a tie on points would mean neither driver could beat Norris on countback. He is guaranteed more wins than Verstappen over the course of the season, and even if Piastri matches his win total at the end of the year, Norris will still be champion due to his more second-place finishes.
For the chasing pair, the equation is simple as well. You must not lose more than one point to Norris throughout the race weekend, and you must not lose any points if Norris wins on Sunday.
The sprint format means Norris can score 25 points for the win, but if he doesn’t score in the sprint and Piastri or Verstappen combine for the top two sprinters (one with eight points and second with seven) and second place in the Grand Prix on 18 points, they’ll either equal Norris’s score or beat him by one point.
