Ryan O’Hanlon
How to describe Liverpool this season? Not great. They’re unreliable and struggling. It’s just plain bad.
Despite having won the league and investing over $500 million in transfers this summer, they’re currently languishing in 12th place. They’ve let in 20 goals, possess a negative goal difference, and only four teams among last year’s champions have fewer points this season. They’re 11 points behind the leaders and seven points above the relegation zone.
Do you want more details? Alright, here goes. This marks the highest number of goals conceded in the first 12 Premier League matches since the 2008-09 season. During their Champions League victory in 2018-19, they only conceded five goals total. Even last season, their defensive record across 12 games was far better.
With the same central defender and midfielder and two new full-backs intended to bolster the defense, Liverpool has astonishingly conceded more goals than the four clubs at the foot of the table. Despite having formidable attacking talent—arguably the strongest outside of sovereign wealth-funded clubs—their scoring has dipped, failing to reach 20 goals in the first 12 matches for the first time in a decade.
High-profile signings like Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz have yet to contribute to the scoreline, with a total of zero goals and one assist combined. The team’s best newcomer, forward Hugo Ekitike, has managed just three goals. Even Mohamed Salah, hailed as the top player last season, has fewer goals and assists than Casemiro right now.
It remains to be seen if Liverpool can turn their fortunes around, but even with improvement, their title hopes seem all but over. Despite the betting markets suggesting a slim 5% chance of catching the 11 teams above them by May, belief appears to be waning—especially after a recent home defeat against a team that has dismissed two managers already.
What’s unfolding is a notable collapse, yet it aligns with trends we frequently observe in the Premier League: title winners often perform poorly in the following season.
– Has Manchester United truly progressed under Amorim?
– Predicting the USMNT’s World Cup starting lineup
– Can coach Arne Slott reverse Liverpool’s decline?
What makes winning consecutive Premier League titles so tough?
The Premier League has been running since the early 1990s, and out of 32 seasons, only 11 have seen repeat champions.
All 11 successful teams shared certain characteristics:
☑ Managed by Sir Alex Ferguson
☑ Owned by Russian billionaires
☑ Currently under scrutiny from the Premier League for potential financial breaches.
Manchester United has six of these, Manchester City four, and Chelsea one. Essentially, to consistently compete within the Premier League’s financial framework, you must either have one of the best coaches ever or be backed by owners who can stretch the regulations.
Among those 11, only five actually achieved more points in consecutive seasons, and just four improved their goal difference. The teams that did are:
• Manchester United, 1999-2000: 79 to 91 points, goal difference +43 to +52.
• Manchester United, 1993-94 (42 games): 84 to 92 points, goal difference +36 to +42
• Manchester City, 2021-2022: 86 to 93 points, goal difference +51 to +73
• Manchester City, 2023-24: 89 to 91 points, goal difference +60 to +61
Also noteworthy are some of the most significant failures in title defenses. Four winners saw their point total drop by at least 25, alongside a goal difference shift of at least 25 goals:
• Blackburn Rovers, 1995-96: 89 points to 61, goal difference +41 to +14.
• Liverpool, 2020-21: 99 to 69 points, goal difference +52 to +26
• Chelsea, 2015-16: 87 to 50 points, goal difference +41 to +6
• Leicester City, 2016-17: 81 to 44, goal difference +32 to -15.
While Blackburn’s figures are a bit skewed due to a switch from a 42- to a 38-game season, a trend emerges where many title winners regress significantly rather than slightly improve. In fact, nearly half of all champions (15) have declined by five points or more, or by at least five goals in their title-following season.
Averaging, title-winning teams would typically exhibit: 87 goals scored, 82.7 goals conceded, and 32.1 goals allowed. In the subsequent season, those numbers fall to approximately: 78.5 goals scored, 76.9 conceded, and 35.2 allowed.
The defense sees a notable decline—10% more goals conceded and 7% fewer points. Essentially, if a team wins the Premier League, they’re expected to drop by about 10% in points the next season.
Why is consecutive success so elusive?
Looking at trends, if a team claims the title:
• 80.3 points
• 76.8 goals
• 32.8 allowed.
On average, title-winning teams improve their point total by about 7 points, only to drop back by 8-9 points to around 80, after reaching a peak of 87 points.
This trend makes sense. The Premier League tends to reward consistent performances over multiple seasons, even though winning can often feel like a matter of fortune. Small differences in performance—whether through fortunate goals or critical errors—can easily lead to vital point differences among similarly talented teams.
The key takeaway here is that winning the Premier League back-to-back is an extraordinary challenge. Achieving the original victory demands extraordinary circumstances.
Take last year’s Liverpool: They boasted good health, a managerial fit, solid performance from defenders, Salah had a career-high season, and both holding midfielders reached their best forms simultaneously.
This year’s injuries (including Gravenberch) and the new tactical dynamics under manager Arne Slott have hindered their performance, while neither Salah nor Gravenberch are performing at their previous levels. Ibrahima Konate has also made the second-most positional errors among Premier League center-backs this season.
These factors don’t fully explain Liverpool’s disappointing season, but they do shed light on the struggles.
1:49
Is Florian Wirtz ‘losing his confidence’ since moving to Liverpool?
Craig Burley discusses Florian Wirtz’s current form with the German national team and its relation to his transfer to Liverpool.
Additionally, teams have little control over their rivals’ performance. For example, Manchester United improved their point totals in the 1998-99 and 2011-12 seasons but failed to capture the title both times, despite having strong goal differences.
Conversely, a team can drop points and still win the league; Manchester United’s successes in 2000-01 and 1996-97 saw point totals decrease, but they secured the title. Arsenal’s title defenses similarly displayed point reductions without success.
Last season, Liverpool enjoyed advantages due to injuries sidelining key players on Manchester City and Arsenal—neither of whom fell below 85 points, and neither exceeded 74 in the previous season.
Should we have anticipated this season’s downturn? There was a lot of betting action on Liverpool early on, and speculation grew as they won unexpected matches.
However, it’s often easier to predict failures than successes. Historically, teams that manage back-to-back titles share specific performance traits: they typically finish in the top two the year prior, improve by less than 7 points, and score above 87 points as champions. Consequently, teams that excelled usually don’t experience anomalous spikes and avoid winning with lower scores.
Among the 32 champion teams, only 11 fit this profile, and of those, only Manchester City in the 2017-18 season successfully defended their title after a record 100 points.
Reflecting on Liverpool last season, they marginally improved by just 2 points from their earlier season despite claiming the title with only 84 points, finishing third previously. They maintained performance but didn’t accumulate points sufficiently for future advantage.
In hindsight, Liverpool appeared ready for a decline, suggesting they might not reclaim the Premier League anytime soon.
Fan Take: The struggles of Liverpool highlight the unpredictable nature of soccer, showing how winning requires not just talent but also a bit of luck. This could signal a shift in power dynamics in the Premier League, keeping fans on their toes about potential upsets in upcoming seasons.
