The 2025-26 offseason has seen both rapid developments and slowdowns, particularly in the starting pitcher market. While the high-leverage reliever market saw quick decisions early on, the starting pitcher segment has slowed down noticeably in recent weeks, with only a few days remaining until the new year.
The Toronto Blue Jays made a splash just before Thanksgiving by signing right-hander Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, and later added right-hander Cody Ponce, who is coming back to the U.S. after playing in the KBO. Aside from these moves, activity among starting pitchers has been limited. Most significant moves involve teams re-signing their current pitchers, such as Shane Bieber staying with the Blue Jays, and Shota Imanaga and Brandon Woodruff accepting qualifying offers from the Cubs and Brewers, respectively. Michael King and Merrill Kelly also re-signed with the Padres and Diamondbacks on multi-year deals.
Despite these signings, many top starting pitchers like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, and Tatsuya Imai remain unsigned. Teams appear interested but are taking their time. One reason for the slow pace is that teams want to explore trade options before making expensive free-agent signings. Acquiring a player like Edward Cabrera or Mackenzie Gore through trade may be more cost-effective than spending $100 million or more on free agents like Suarez or Valdez. Several trades have already occurred, including deals by the Red Sox, Astros, and Orioles.
The prospect Tarik Skubal also garners attention, though the Tigers would likely require financial compensation. Additionally, looming regarding potential future lockouts and uncertainty about next season, some teams may hesitate to commit to multi-year contracts beyond 2026.
Tatsuya Imai’s posting window closes on January 2, and his impending signing could prompt more activity in the market involving players like Suarez, Valdez, Gallen, Lucas Giolito, and Nick Martinez. With contending teams like the Cubs, Mets, and Giants still needing starting pitchers, more moves are expected as January begins. After all, spring training is only about seven weeks away.
Fan Take: This slow-moving market underscores just how vital starting pitching is to team success and financial strategy. Baseball fans should watch closely, as the next big signings could reshape the competitive landscape for the 2026 season and beyond.
