A lot can change in a year on the tennis tour. Around this time in 2024, Naomi Osaka was ranked 57th in the world and was still looking for momentum after returning from maternity leave. Belinda Bencic was 487th, just starting her comeback. Victoria Mboko, 18, was ranked 336th and was just beginning her journey as a high-level professional. Currently, they are ranked 16th, 11th and 18th in the world respectively. Amanda Anisimova moved up from 36th to 4th place.
In the men’s race, Félix Auger-Aliassime rose from 29th to 5th place. Teenagers João Fonseca and Lerner Tien jumped from 145th and 122nd to 24th and 28th, respectively. The names at the top of the sport didn’t change much, but almost everything else did.
After a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it tennis off-season, and in all seriousness, the Australian Open somehow starts in less than two weeks, the caravan is about to get going again. We’ll have to preview the Australian Open in due course, but as 2026 begins, let’s talk about American tennis. 2025 saw some great moves from players like Anisimova and Tien, but what’s next? What will the hierarchy look like a year from now?
ATP
The 2026 ATP season will depend on whether anyone challenges Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner’s rules. The duo enters 2026 with 23,550 ranking points over the past year, which is more than the total points earned by the No. 3 through No. 7 players. The two sides faced each other in three of the four tournament finals in 2025, winning a total of eight tournaments in a row. We’ll see if someone can stop this movement, and two of the main candidates are American.
1. Taylor Fritz
Age: 28 years old
Current ATP Rank: 9 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 5
Few players in men’s tennis have done a better job of slowly strengthening their weaknesses and maximizing their game than California-born Fritz, who has finished in the top 10 four years in a row and finished in the top six two years in a row. He reached the 2024 U.S. Open final and the 2025 Wimbledon semifinal, and earned his first competitive victory against Alcaraz at the Laver Cup in September. (He’s also 1-4 against Sinner.) His game may have peaked in 2024, but he’s earned the right to lead this list for another year.
2. Ben Shelton
Age: 23 years old
Current ATP Rank: 8 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 12
If there’s an American who can overtake Fritz and challenge for the Big Two, it’s the flamboyant Shelton, who had his first top 10 finish in 2025 and started the year reaching Australia’s second-ever Grand Slam semifinal. The large lefty, who uses his left-handed serve as his weapon, has cleared many hurdles, but the biggest hurdle is still to come. He has a total of 0 wins and 3 losses against Alcaraz, and 8 losses against Sinner. He’ll need a strong start in 2026 — he returned from a shoulder injury at the U.S. Open in October, but lost six of his last nine matches in 2025.
3. Learner Tien
Age: 20 years old
Current ATP Rank: 26 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 13
He’s only 5 feet 11 inches tall, and his athleticism is average by the ridiculous standards of the tennis world. But no American – and in fact, few ATP players – enjoyed a more exciting 2025 than Tien, who went an incredible 5-3 against top 10 opponents, won the year-end Next Generation Tournament, and rose from No. 122 to No. 28 in the ATP Rankings. His game is based on depth, precision, tactical adaptability, and an overwhelming level of “I belong here” confidence, and if he can upgrade his serve just a little, he could be in the top 15 at worst.
4. Tommy Paul
Age: 28 years old
Current ATP Rank: 20 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 29
Due to a foot injury, Paul played only five tour matches after Wimbledon and finished outside of the ATP top 15 for the first time since 2022, despite reaching the quarter-finals in the first two tournaments of the year. When he’s at his best, he can flash short-term brilliance — he won the first set 6-1 against Sinner in Rome in May, then dropped the next two — and has reached four quarterfinals and semifinals at major tournaments. Will rest and rehabilitation allow him to return to that level in 2026?
5. Sebastian Korda
Age: 25 years old
Current ATP Rank: 46 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 21
Don’t be late. It’s time to jump on the Seb Korda bandwagon again! The 25-year-old has been plagued by a number of injuries and false starts since reaching his only Grand Slam quarter-final at the 2023 Australian Open. However, at the US Open, he retired in the first round and fell to 79th place, but he made the most of the indoor season and quickly returned to the top 50 until the semifinals in Athens. If his body can last a full year on the runway — a huge “what if” at this point — his technically superior game could take him quite far.
6. Francis Tiafoe
Age: 27 years old
Current ATP Rank: 30 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 40
Perhaps no American player faces a bigger challenge in 2026 than Big Foe. He finished outside of the ATP top 20 for the first time since 2021, losing his last five matches of the year and taking his season record to just 26-23 (no top 10 wins), with his French Open quarterfinal appearance the only one in the top 30. Like many other players, he has opted to revamp his coaching team for 2026. He’s still young enough to rebuild himself, but nothing is guaranteed.
7. Jenson Brooksby
Age: 25 years old
Current ATP Rank: 49 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 42
In his first full season back on tour after a 13-month suspension for failing a doping test, Brooksby re-established himself as a top-50 player with wins over the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime, Holger Ruhn, Tiafoe and Paul. He reached tour finals on both clay (win against Tiafoe at Houston) and grass (lost to Fritz at Eastbourne). Does his enigmatic game have any upside beyond the top 40?
8. Alex Michelsen
Age: 21 years old
Current ATP Rank: 37 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 66
It seemed like a year of near-stagnation for Michelsen, who finished 2024 ranked 41st in the world and was able to move up a little bit more in 2025. Still, he ticked the boxes with a top-10 win over Lorenzo Musetti over the summer, his first Grand Slam appearance (Australian Open) and his first 1000-level quarterfinal (Canadian Open). He is a candidate who will emerge from his performance on hard courts at the beginning of the year.
9. Brandon Nakashima
Age: 24 years old
Current ATP Rank: 33 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 44
It’s been a slow but steady progression from the former Virginia Cavalier, who rose to No. 38 in 2024 and No. 33 in 2025. He has followed Fritz’s path, gradually correcting his weaknesses and racking up wins, but there are concerns about his pure upside. In 2025, he had just 3 wins and 4 losses in slam tournaments and 0 wins and 12 losses in full matches against top 20 opponents.
10. Ethan Quinn
Age: 21 years old
Current ATP Rank: 76 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 78
The former NCAA champion has a decent size (6 feet 3 inches) and a strong serve and forehand game that helped him jump from outside the top 200 to the top 75 last year. He qualified for three major tournaments, winning the French Open and Wimbledon. The troubles are just beginning for the former Georgia Bulldog, but the 21-year-old has plenty of time to figure things out.
Other potential breakthrough candidates: Riley Opelka (current rank: 60), Emilio Nava (88), Elliott Spizzilli (89), Zachary Svaida (142), Colton Smith (145), Nishesh Basavalady (172), Michael Chen (182), Darwin Branch (297).
WTA
Last summer, I wrote that the depth of the women’s tennis world was greater than ever before, and with Mboko’s subsequent breakthrough and Osaka’s strong fall, it has become even deeper. While the top three players on the women’s tour (Arina Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff) don’t seem to be slowing down, Anisimova and a resurgent Elena Rybakina round out the top five, with about 20 to 25 different players aiming to break into the top 10. This could be the deepest tour we’ve ever seen in 2026, with quite a few players looking to break into the top 10. Americans can be a serious factor (beyond those who are already, of course).
1. Coco Gauff
Age: 21 years old
Current WTA Rank: 4 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 4
Gauff, who is somehow only 21 years old, already has a Hall of Fame resume — two major championships, five major semifinals, and 11 tour wins (including three 1000s and a WTA Finals win in 2024) — but she still hasn’t fully utilized her entire game. She won titles at Roland Garros and Wuhan in 2025, winning 75% of her matches despite double faulting 10% of the time, the most of any player in the WTA top 50. If she finds the service motion she’s looking for, she’ll instantly rise to the number one position in the world.
2. Amanda Anisimova
Age: 24 years old
Current WTA Rank: 3 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 5
Anisimova became the talk of the year in 2025, rising from 36th to 4th place and reaching five finals, including Wimbledon and the US Open. her extreme humanity Her composure shined both in her address to the crowd after her 6-0, 6-0 loss to Swiatek in the Wimbledon final and in her revenge victory over Swiatek in the US Open semifinals. Her backhand is probably my favorite stroke in tennis, and her serve has improved dramatically. She has everything she needs to stay on track in 2025.
3. Jessica Pegula
Age: 31 years old
Current WTA Rank: 6 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 6
After finally reaching a major final at the 2024 U.S. Open, Pegula endured a rocky 2025, winning just five of his first three major tournaments. But she still managed to move up from seventh to sixth place at the end of 2024 thanks to six finals, three titles, a US Open semi-final appearance (she came close to Sabalenka), and year-end wins over Sabalenka and Gauff. She has the ultimate high-rise game and reminded us that her upside potential is still very high in late 2025.
4. Iva Jovic
Age: 18
Current WTA Rank: 35 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 55
This ranking may be far too aggressive, but I’m going to go with it. Jovic started 2025 on the lower-level ITF circuit, but finished the season in the top 30, winning three of four tournaments and winning the Guadalajara title in September. We still don’t know everything there is to know about her benefits. She played four top-20 opponents in 2025 (twice each with Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini) and won only one set. However, she went 3-0 against the rest of the top 50 teams. This is a good sign. She already has one of the best returns on tour and should see great results as her power and serve improve as she matures.
5. Madison Keys
Age: 30 years old
Current WTA Rank: 7 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 11
Madison Keys is hard to pin down at this point. She was almost the best player in the world at the beginning of 2025. She won 18 of her first 19 matches and captured her first Grand Slam title with a dramatic victory over Sabalenka in Australia. But her tone and concentration declined from there. He lost five games, four of them in straight sets, to players ranked outside the top 80, and due to lingering injury troubles, he ended the season with four straight losses. Can Keys rediscover his drive and focus after his late-career tournament breakthrough?
6. Emma Navarro
Age: 24 years old
Current WTA Rank: 15 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 32
After breaking into the top 10 in 2024, Navarro suffered a significant slump in his second year. (Tour teams tend to upgrade their matches when they get more attention on the tour.) She made her third consecutive quarterfinal appearance in Australia, but won only four tournaments the rest of the year, going 2-5 against top-10 opponents. Still, three of those five losses were in three sets, and he defeated Swiatek in Beijing in the fall. The form and accuracy are still there and she is a solid rebound candidate.
7. McCartney Kessler
Age: 26 years old
Current WTA Rank: 31 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 29
Although she’s still waiting to make her breakthrough in Slam competition, the former Florida Gator has steadily climbed from 67th to 31st in 2025, winning two titles (Hobart and Nottingham). Wins over Gauff (Dubai) and Mira Andreeva (Montreal). She also almost beat Chingwen Zhen and Karolina Muchova. She’s good at scoring points — the longer they last, the better for Kessler — but we’ll learn a lot about the positive side of her life this year.
8. Juliet Couple
Age: 16 years old
Current WTA Rank: 345 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 212
Pareja clearly has a long way to go, but she made her WTA debut in Bogota in May and quickly became the youngest tour-level semifinalist since Gauff. Her forehand and return game are already at a high level, and her serve has plenty of time to catch up. Obviously, this is a strong ranking for a player with 11 games on tour (zero wins in the top 100), but remember her name for the future.
9. Sofia Kenin
Age: 24 years old
Current WTA Rank: 28 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 53
With the exception of perhaps Jelena Ostapenko, there are few players in the women’s game that define the game as much as Kenin. As Ben Rosenberg of the Bounces newsletter wrote in August, she has far more aces and far fewer return points than any other top player. She’s always guessing and going for the endpoint, a style that has earned her two top-10 wins and nearly defeated Sabalenka in Rome. She lost to Gauff 6-0, 6-0 in Miami and won and lost sets 6-0 against Paolini. The charming former Australian Open champion has an especially high ceiling and an especially low floor.
10. Katie McNally
Age: 24 years old
Current WTA Rank: 63 |Current Tennis Abstract Rank: 60
McNally, a two-time U.S. Open finalist in doubles, took a strong step forward in 2025 after battling elbow problems for two years. After racking up points on the ITF circuit, she won the Newport title in July by defeating grass-court specialist Tatiana Maria in the final, also taking Swiatek (Wimbledon), Keyes (Montreal) and Rybakina (Beijing) to three sets. It’s never too late to make a breakthrough.
Other potential breakthrough candidates: Ang Lee (current WTA ranking: 37), Ashlyn Krueger (49), Hailey Baptiste (65), Peyton Sterns (50), Danielle Collins (62), Alicia Parks (101), Taylor Townsend (116), Kreby Ngunouye (192)
