UFC 325 is set to take place this Saturday in Sydney, Australia, with the promotion’s CEO in attendance. The main card starts at 9 pm ET and will be available to stream on Paramount+, hosted at Qudos Bank Arena. The highlight of the event is the featherweight title rematch between two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski (27-4) and challenger Diego Lopez (27-7). Volkanovski aims to defend his belt after a decision victory over Lopez at UFC 314 last April.
Current betting lines favor Volkanovski at -148, reflecting the Australian’s home advantage, while Lopez is the underdog at +124. The co-main event features a lightweight bout between Dan Hooker (+295), ranked sixth, and Benoit Saint-Denis (-375), ranked eighth. Before making your final predictions, consider consulting expert MMA picks and betting strategies powered by Mike McClure’s computer model.
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McClure’s advanced UFC model simulates each fight 10,000 times on a round-by-round basis, factoring in changing win probabilities, finish likelihoods based on damage, and fighter-specific styles such as knockout power or grappling skill. Having been tested over 500 fights from 2023 to 2025, the model boasts an 18-unit profit and a 6.1% return on investment. It started strong in the new Paramount+ era with a perfect call on the UFC 324 main event featuring Justin Gaethje.
This time, the model extensively analyses the Volkanovski vs. Lopez 2 bout, providing top betting recommendations exclusively on SportsLine.
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At 36, Volkanovski is the first Australian UFC champion and the oldest featherweight titleholder. He has topped pound-for-pound rankings in 2022 and 2023 and once held an 11-fight streak in the division. Recently, he went 2-3 in five fights, including a move up to lightweight where he lost twice against Islam Makhachev. After losing the featherweight belt to Ilya Topuria in February 2024, Volkanovski reclaimed the vacant title by outstriking Lopez significantly in their first fight.
Lopez, 31, is younger and taller by five inches. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, he joined the UFC in 2023, rebounded from an initial loss to string together five wins with two Performance of the Night awards, eventually capturing the featherweight title from Volkanovski in their first match at UFC 314. Although narrowly defeated, the bout earned Fight of the Night honors.
Since then, Volkanovski hasn’t fought, while Lopez defeated Jean Silva via TKO with spinning elbows and punches in September 2025, marking his 11th KO win overall. Both fighters have never lost by submission but have experienced knockout and decision losses.
For UFC 325, the model also favors Mauricio Ruffy (+102) against Rafael Fiziev (-122), predicting a 57% finish rate likely via knockout or TKO, making it a promising pick.
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This model provides strong predictions not only for the Volkanovski vs. Lopez rematch but also identifies a +600 longshot poised for an upset, all detailed on SportsLine.
Visit SportsLine for comprehensive picks and analysis from this proven model, which has achieved a 6.1% ROI over 500 past fights.
Here is a snapshot of the main card odds (subject to change):
- Alexander Volkanovski (-148) vs. Diego Lopez (+124)
- Dan Hooker (+295) vs. Benoit St. Denis (-375)
- Rafael Fiziev (-122) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (+102)
- Tihuassa (+260) vs. Talison Teixeira (-325)
- Quilan Salkild (-1000) vs. Jamie Malarkey (+676)
Fan Take: UFC 325 signals a thrilling chapter with a high-stakes featherweight rematch featuring two elite stars at different points in their careers. This event not only offers electrifying matchups but also marks an evolving era for the sport with UFC’s full embrace of streaming on Paramount+, potentially expanding its global fanbase.
