With 28 out of 30 NBA teams playing on Wednesday as part of the NBA All-Star Weekend lead-up, there will be plenty of player prop betting opportunities. Many top players are aware they’ll soon get some rest and recovery, influencing sportsbooks to set prop totals that sometimes don’t match the SportsLine prediction model. This model anticipates that two NBA stars—Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards—will score below their set prop totals. Specifically, it predicts Jokic will have 10.5 or fewer assists (he’s hit this mark in five of his last seven games), while Edwards will score 29.5 points or less against the Trail Blazers. Additionally, the model favors Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Poziemski to score 13.5 or more points against the Spurs as the Warriors continue to play without Stephen Curry (out with a knee injury).
Fans can leverage sportsbook promotions such as FanDuel’s $100 bonus bet for new users who win their first $5 wager. This model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has provided consistent returns on player bets over eight seasons, boasting a 38-17 record on top NBA spread picks entering the week before the All-Star break.
Wednesday’s top NBA player prop picks include:
- Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): Under 10.5 assists
- Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves): Under 29.5 points
- Brandin Poziemski (Warriors): Over 13.5 points
Jokic, leading the NBA with 10.7 assists per game, has recently been limited in minutes due to recovery from a knee injury and a current ankle sprain, which could reduce his assist numbers. The Nuggets are heavy favorites against the Grizzlies, making it plausible they’ll rest Jokic more, with the model projecting about nine assists. DraftKings offers odds of -128 for Jokic to be under 10.5 assists.
Edwards is averaging 31.4 points in February but has scored fewer than 30 points in three of his last four games. He performed under 29.5 points in multiple games against the Trail Blazers last season, and considering Portland’s recent three-game winning streak, they are expected to contain him again. DraftKings provides the best odds for Edwards with a 29.5-point total, slightly higher than other sportsbooks.
Poziemski has scored 16 and 14 points in his last two games, with more chances to score due to Stephen Curry’s ongoing absence. The Warriors’ opponent, the Spurs, could be fatigued playing back-to-back games, which might boost Poziemski’s scoring chances. The model forecasts around 15.7 points for him on Wednesday.
For those looking for more NBA betting insights, expert Mike Varner has gone 37-15 this season on his last 52 prop picks and is sharing current predictions to help bettors maximize their chances.
Fan Take:
This detailed analysis showcases how injuries and upcoming rest periods can greatly impact player performance and betting markets, giving basketball fans an inside edge on smarter wagering. As NBA players manage their workloads more strategically, this approach not only enhances the longevity of star athletes but also adds a fascinating layer of strategy to how fans engage with the sport through betting.
