Jannik Sinner enters Roland Garros as a bigger French Open favorite than Rafael Nadal with 14 titles in total

Let me be completely clear. No one here would argue that Jannik Sinner is as good a clay court player as Rafael Nadal in his prime.

What we’re here to tell you is that the ATP No. 1 player is currently the heavy favorite to win the French Open over Nadal, who has won all 14 of Roland Garros. That in itself is an accomplishment.

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Here’s how to calculate the numbers: Sinner currently stands around -325 times the odds of winning his first Roland Garros title by defeating any contender not including Carlos Alcaraz. Below are the odds for each time Nadal started the tournament in Paris, going back to his debut title in 2005 (data via Sports Odds History).

You may have noticed that in 2009, the year Nadal suffered his first loss to Robin Soderling at Roland Garros, one of the biggest upsets in tennis history, Nadal was -400 points. So Sinner is not as big a favorite as Nadal, but the Spaniard has only won the tournament in 14 years.

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At the very least, it’s safe to say that despite never having won Roland Garros, Sinner is the front-runner at Nadal’s level this year for more than just good tennis.

It’s not that he was great at tennis.

Why is Jannik Sinner the heavy favorite for the French Open?

Clearly, Sinner has had some success lately.

He enters the tournament with 29 straight wins across five Masters 1000 tournaments (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome), the longest winning streak of his career. His last loss was on February 19th in Doha against Jakub Mensik.

It’s a ridiculous run, and he’s already a dominant force. This includes joining the club with Nadal, the only player in tennis history to win the Masters 1000 on clay three times since 2010.

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But another reason he’s so popular is the fact that when it comes to the players around him, the waves have parted ways in a way he’ll never see again in his career.

The obvious story is that Alcaraz, his biggest rival and the man who stunned him in last year’s Roland Garros final, will miss both this tournament and Wimbledon with a wrist injury, but the details have not yet been made public. It’s a big absence, and one that tennis fans are hoping will be a one-off.

As for those actually in the draw, it’s safe to say that all of the other challengers have serious reasons to doubt their chances against the Italian.

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• Novak Djokovic (+1200) hasn’t won a match on clay since Roland Garros last year. He missed most of this year’s clay season with a shoulder injury and lost in his return match in Rome to 20-year-old qualifier Dino Prizmic. After the match, he admitted that he was still half a step short.

• Casper Ruud (+2000) is the most recent player to lose to Sinner in the final in Rome. There was little drama in this final, and no reason to believe the result would change in five sets. He has a record of 0 wins and 5 losses against Sinner.

• Arthur Fils (+2000), Rafael Jódar (+2000) and Joao Fonseca (+5000) are three of the next four on the odds leaderboard. All are over the age of 21, and Hodal is in his first year as a full-time pro. None of them have even reached the Grand Slam quarterfinals. A total of 0 wins and 4 losses against Sinner.

• Daniil Medvedev (+4000) has a 53% win rate at Roland Garros, his worst performance ever at a Grand Slam, and has only reached the quarterfinals once, losing in 2021. Dating back to the 2024 US Open, he has lost to Sinner in his last five matches.

• No one outside of that group has odds greater than +8000. The actual list of candidates is so barren.

If Sinner were to lose at Roland Garros, it would be a major upset. But we shouldn’t act as if it can’t happen.

Jannik Sinner looked human at one point in Rome

Perhaps the biggest factor against Sinner is fatigue. Considering he has played the most matches in the Masters 1000 tournament with five consecutive tournaments. He looked particularly exhausted in the Rome semi-final against Medvedev, who has a habit of making star players uncomfortable.

Sinner looked like he would easily defeat the former ATP No. 1 in the first set, but he hit a wall in the second, limping visibly and at one point tumbling twice as if he was about to throw up. He looked in agony on the bench between games.

But Sinner used one of the best serves in tennis to win points easily and managed to stay competitive in the set, finding a second wind and forcing a break in the third set before rain forced a break.

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The match ended with Sinner winning 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, and after the match Sinner said:

“We knew before the fight that it could be a very physical match,” said Sinner, who was crouched between points against Medvedev. “I played really well in the first set. Then the conditions got really tough. It was tough to get through. But at the same time, I tried to understand what works best. I tried to play with the best energy possible. Yesterday was very tough.”

These are not the words of someone who considers themselves untouchable, although they may feel that way sometimes.

Beyond that fight in Rome, Sinner’s struggles in hot weather have been well documented, and he has lost to opponents other than Alcaraz so far. The brilliance he’s shown in this run has an air of inevitability, but it only takes one day for his serve to miss, or his opponent to feel it at the baseline, to shock the world.

Will there be an asterisk for Jannik Sinner’s Roland Garros title?

For now, let’s just say that you really shouldn’t do that.

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Yes, Sinner’s chances of winning his first French Open title will be greatly helped by the knowledge that he won’t have to run into Alcaraz, who defeated Sinner en route to winning both French titles. If you want to discuss the dynamics of this particular tournament, it makes sense to bring it up.

But tennis, like any sport, is ultimately about defeating the people in front of you, and if Sinner lifts the Coupe des Mousquetaires, he will have achieved that. May all criticisms of our achievements be as weak as, “The only man in the world who could beat him wasn’t playing.”

Moreover, it’s hard to think of a more dire way to evaluate tennis history than keeping track of which top players won which trophies. However, it’s all hypothetical for now, so we’ll have to wait until after the tournament to start discussing it.

It’s a similar story at Wimbledon.

We already know Alcaraz won’t be in the field as Sinner defends his Wimbledon title, but the odds are just as impressive at -275.

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Now let’s do the same exercise for Roger Federer between his first Wimbledon title and his last Wimbledon title (odds again via Sports Odds History).

Sinner is currently the heavy favorite over Rafael Nadal to win all 14 titles at Roland Garros, and the heavy favorite over Roger Federer to win all eight Wimbledon titles (even every other year). What’s more, Djokovic, a seven-time Wimbledon champion, has never had support as high as -275.

Get well soon, Carlos.