The 2026 PGA Championship is coming to a close with the fourth round underway at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Alex Smalley birdied 18 and 3 in the final four holes of the third round to bring his total to 6 under for the tournament, with two strokes left. But big names like Ludwig Aberg (-4), Jon Rahm (-4), Rory McIlroy (-3) and Xander Schauffele (-3) are chasing him, all within three strokes of the lead. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler started the day at 1 under. The final pair of Smalley and Matti Schmidt will tee off at 2:35 p.m. ET.
Smalley is the +480 favorite to win the 2026 PGA Championship (risk $100 to win $480), followed by Aberg and Rahm at +550 and McIlroy at +700. Smalley is looking for his first professional win on tour. Before finalizing your contenders for Sunday’s 2026 PGA Championship, be sure to check out the 2026 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboards from proven computer models at SportsLine.
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SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every event on the PGA Tour 10,000 times and found: golf gambling A pick with a history of being very profitable.
This same model was successful at a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, which will be the fifth consecutive Masters, and last year’s PGA Championship and British Open Championship. Anyone who follows our sports betting recommendations may have seen huge profits. gambling site.
The 2026 PGA Championship is in its fourth round, and the model simulated the remaining tournament 10,000 times, and the results are surprising. Visit SportsLine now to see the predicted leaderboards.
2026 PGA Championship Sunday Predictions
One of the big surprises the model is calling for Sunday at the 2026 PGA Championship is that it projects Smalley to finish outside the top five despite entering the fourth round with a two-shot lead. He has defied expectations all weekend and has recorded 67 wins, 69 losses, and 68 draws thus far. It was a commendable effort, but he’s poised to jump onto the massive leaderboard. Modell says his lack of experience with this kind of pressure makes him a difficult candidate to back. See who else will be fading out here.
Another surprise is that the model predicts a rebound for Scheffler on Sunday, as he is expected to return to the top five despite playing T23 on Sunday. Scheffler is currently firing 71 shots in back-to-back rounds, including 67 in the first round. Scheffler leads the PGA this season with a fourth-round scoring average of 67.22, so the model likes the +1600 value on the outright bet and a strong play on the top-5 bet (+230). Find out who else to choose here.
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How to make the 2026 PGA Sunday Picks
The model also targets several other long shots, including players who come in at around 40-1 and make incredible runs toward a title shot. Model pickups can only be seen here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship and which long shot will shock the golf world? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the predicted leaderboard from a model that has won 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 PGA Championship Sunday odds, favorites
Get the complete contenders, best bets and predictions for the 2026 PGA Championship here.
(Odds provided by FanDuel are subject to change)
Alex Smalley +480
Ludwig Oberg +550
Jon Rahm +550
Rory McIlroy +700
Xander Schauffele +1200
Scotty Scheffler +1600
Aaron Rai +1800
Nick Taylor +1800
Patrick Reed +2200
Maverick McNeely +2700
Matti Schmidt +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Lee Min Woo +4000
Chris Gottterp +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Joaquin Niemann +4500
Ben Griffin +6000
Brooks Koepka +6000
Christopher Reitan +6500
Cameron Smith +6500
Max Glaserman +8000
Chris Kirk+10000
Sam Burns +10000
Cameron Young +10000
Bud Corey +10000
Rickie Fowler +10000
