Muirfield Village is a true monster at 7,569 yards of elevation, rated at Elite difficulty, and has water everywhere on the slopes. Approach play is everything here, everything else is secondary.
Muirfield is essentially an iron-playing contest dressed up as a full PGA event. And the problem is further complicated by the highest fairway miss penalty on tour. Miss the fairway and you’ll end up hitting a long approach from an awkward lie to a fast, undulating, small green.
This week I focused on comparing approaches and tee-to-green strokes to find pools, then used the green surrounds to trim the fat and leave everything else as noise. Since it’s a marquee event, I still have faith in a few players.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (Includes tie) Subject to change.
best plan
Ludwig Oberg Top 10 +136 (tie): I got burned last week, but I’m back to him again. Oberg’s irons were neutral at Colonial, but he hit the field first on approach. So he had a down week. They happen. He’s also second on the field from tee to green. His history on the course is strong, his approach numbers have been strong in recent years, and he has been consistently in contention this season.
Honestly, I’m worried about the area around the green (No. 27). If he misses a green at Muirfield, he may leak more plays than the top players, but his greens at regulation rate are strong enough that he doesn’t scramble out of trouble often. He was shaky at best on Sunday, averaging 43rd in the fourth round, but he shot 66 at this course last year, so he’s reassuring that he’ll be able to compete on Sunday.
Top 5 -144 (tie): This again? yes. Why not? Every week we essentially ask, would Scheffler do what Scheffler did? I haven’t seen anything that makes me stop. He has finished in the top five in 22 of the past 32 tournaments, with a accuracy rate of 68.75%. He finished in the top five in four of the past five tournaments and was runner-up in three of them.
With the analytical side to back it up, he won this tournament two years in a row in two different ways. Last year, he was elite with the irons, scrambles and around the greens. His putting was basically neutral, which was no problem at all at Muirfield. In 2024, Scheffler had the most ridiculous individual performance numbers, gaining nearly 13 strokes on approach. All of his runs were decided by iron play alone. His 2025 version was more complete.
This time, he finished in the top five in all weighted strokes gained metrics, first in the field on long courses, and top 15 in scrambling, skills that are highly valued on this course. The price is high for a chalk play, but the data supports the price. The only counter is that -144 may not work on your bankroll and real money is at risk on golf bets with high variance. But if you believe his base is most people’s ceiling, this is a +EV bet.
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Cameron Young, $10,300: He is currently in elite form, having won the Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship, and has competed in two events as of late, with only a red point due to a stroke cross. He has a true top-10 percentage (+126), but the issue is course history, with his 2024 T50 lost on approach and last year’s T25 lost on approach. Despite his profile being competitive on paper, this course just doesn’t sit well with him. It makes more sense to play him in fantasy than in betting, as his background at Muirfield could suppress ownership and lower ownership for live players.
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Alex Smalley, $8,000: Smalley has been in great form, finishing in the top seven in four of the past five tournaments, including a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship. He has had strokes gained data across the board since early April and is on the greens with no blips to worry about. So why does it fade? His $8,000 bill speaks for itself. He missed out on Muirfield in 2022 and 2023, both of which had very negative approach games. On other similar comp looks, he missed three cuts in a row at Riviera, and on a looser comp course, he also missed a cut at Bay Hill. After multiple attempts on three related courses, I had a very negative number of approaches and a terrible performance. Can he become a better player now? Sure, recent strong records like Aronimink’s T2, Colonial’s T3, and even Quail Hollow’s T17 are real, but those are very different demand profiles. His style may not translate to the long iron demands at Muirfield.
JJ Spahn, $8,000: Although his approach numbers are legitimately good, Spown missed cuts on key courses. He is a difficult player to trust at Muirfield without a better comp performance. Plus, he’s lost big strokes in nearly every tournament he’s played this season, which puts him at risk on courses where scrambling is already difficult.
