PARIS — Arina Sabalenka’s bid for her first French Open title ended in surprising fashion on Wednesday. She let go of a commanding lead and lost 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 to Russia’s Diana Schneider in the quarterfinals at the windy Roland Garros.
The world No. 1 led 6-3, 4-1 and was two points away from winning at 5-3, but Schneider fought back brilliantly and stormed to victory as Sabalenka’s match fell apart.
The 25th seed, who has never made it past the third round at a major tournament, will face unseeded Maja Czwalinska of Poland in Thursday’s semifinals for a spot in the final.
With Sabalenka gone, the crown will go to a first-time Grand Slam champion. Here’s what happened Wednesday and what’s next.
Sabalenka suffered mentally
Sabalenka had the upper hand in one set-up, but the Belarusian was already showing some signs of weakness as she trailed from 5-1 to 5-3 in the opener. But starting at 4-1 in the second set, she suffered one of the most stunning collapses in recent history (apart from Jannik Sinner’s defeat there).
“I think I had a very decent chance in the second set, I missed, but then she stepped in and played great,” Sabalenka said. “I feel like I didn’t really recover mentally after the second set. That was my biggest mistake. I fell into a very deep, dark hole mentally and couldn’t get back on track mentally.”
The wind reached Sabalenka
There was no rain in the forecast so the roof was open and the wind was a big factor. Sabalenka was in complete control at the beginning of the fight, but once she started to wobble, it happened quickly. The wind was strong throughout, and Sabalenka, who had little room for error with her flat groundstrokes, began to lose her form. Her footwork also started to fail and her game fell apart.
She made a total of 57 unforced errors, including 17 in crucial situations, and scored just 14 points. Her first serve percentage remained high, but she won only 43% on first serve and 25% on second serve in the third set as Schneider pulled away.
“I don’t understand why they leave the roof open when the wind is so strong,” Sabalenka said after the match. “But how can you complain if everything was going well for almost the entire match and then all of a sudden it went away? Maybe it was because mentally I wasn’t really okay, but I felt like I was going crazy.”
Schneider found the right balance
Schneider, a left-hander, spent his time figuring out how best to deal with Sabalenka in the wind. For a set and a half, she was knocked off the court by the power of the world’s No. 1 match. But as the wind picked up, her topspin widened her margin and she cleverly used angles to move Sabalenka around the court and force her from awkward positions.
Schneider’s forehands on the line were particularly effective, but she falsely kicked Sabalenka several times. She withstood the pressure and held serve at 5-3 down in the second match, breaking Sabalenka on serve for the match.
Things went well in the third set, with Schneider changing his pace, spin and trajectory to escape.
“In the third set, I feel like I finally found my rhythm and how to play, where to be more aggressive and where to defend,” she said.
So who will win the French Open title?
Good question! Mila Andreeva is the highest remaining seed at No. 8, while Marta Kostyuk is unbeaten in 17 matches on clay this year. However, none of the four semi-finalists have ever competed in a tournament final, let alone won, so it will be a matter of who can handle the nerves better.
With rain in the forecast, both games on Thursday could be under a closed roof, which will help Kostyuk, who hits flatter than most players. But Andreeva, Schneider, and her opponent, unseeded Polish player Maja Czywarinska, all play with plenty of spin and margin to change the pace, so it will be difficult to beat.
Andreeva is the only of the four to ever reach a Grand Slam semi-final, but as this year’s Roland Garros shows, predicting anything is a recipe for disaster.
