PARIS — After one of the most dramatic French Opens in recent history, with a series of surprises and surprising upsets, this is what the men’s event looks like. Alexander Zverev will face Flavio Coboli in Sunday’s championship match. Two players ranked in the top 10 in the live rankings will each compete for their first Grand Slam title.
There is a huge difference in experience. Second-seeded Zverev booked his fourth Grand Slam final with a four-set win over Jakub Mencik on Friday, but Cobolli, who reached the final by default after Matteo Arnaldi withdrew, had only reached the quarterfinals of a major once before this week.
Koboli will be fresh after three and a half days off, but Zverev has been waiting for this moment for years.
Here’s how both men could win and who could come out on top.
Why Zverev will win
It’s his time. This will be the German’s fourth Grand Slam final, but aside from his first final, in which he fell two points from victory against Dominic Thiem at the 2020 US Open, he has done little else wrong.
There was a time, especially after losing to Jannik Sinner in last year’s Australian Open final, when Zverev wondered if he would ever get another chance. But here he is. He is the last big name to stand in a tournament where other big names have left.
Zverev had been in good form throughout the two weeks, dropping just two sets en route to the final. A few years ago, his second serve was his weakness. It’s now a strength for him, with 66% of his total points won on second serves, the third-best in the event. He was in third place in points earned on serve +1, finishing points with the first shot after the serve, and coped well with everything thrown at him, defeating new Spanish sensation Rafael Jodal in the quarterfinals, followed by Mensik in the semifinals.
With Carlos Alcaraz absent from the tournament and Sinner and Novak Djokovic eliminated in the second and third rounds respectively, Zverev did exactly what he needed to do without expending too much energy to reach his fourth tournament final.
This is his biggest chance to win a major, and he’s not going to let it pass.
Why Kobolli wins
He’s fresh and clay is the best surface for him.
Koboli lost just two sets en route to his first final. The Italian, who reached the quarter-finals on grass at Wimbledon last summer, reached the final in Hamburg and defeated Zverev in the semi-final, a win that gave him confidence.
Although he lost to Zverev in Madrid, the fact that he had three full days off before the start of the final must be in his favor. Clay court tennis is very tough, but he has avoided really long matches and not having to endure what was expected to be another epic battle with Arnaldi means he will go into the final even more energized.
Sinner’s achievements have overshadowed the efforts of other Italian players in recent years, but it bodes well that Cobolli weathered the storm to face Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals after being trailed by a break in the first set.
Two of his three ATP titles have come on clay, and the fact that he actually beat Zverev will be a huge factor when he takes to the court for his first Grand Slam final, and should no doubt ease the nerves he will experience.
The crowd is also likely on his side, and he will understand that as the underdog, the pressure is on Zverev to win the title. He has the versatility, tenacity, and court skills to get it done.
Who will win?
Everything depends on how Zverev handles the situation. Having lost three times in the finals of three major tournaments, I know I won’t have a better chance, but that also puts pressure on me.
Zverev was there for a long time, but finally the door opened in his favor. He is playing for the first time against a player who has never been to a Slam final before, but he plays with a calmness that suggests he can handle stress. He has a 3-1 lead in head-to-head matches, but both are 1-1 on clay this year.
But Cobolli has earned his spot in the top 10, a clay-court-trained Italian who knows the ins and outs of playing on this surface, and a man who knows how to get opponents into places they don’t want them to be.
The Italians might be saved if the roof comes off. The wind will make it more difficult for Zverev, who tosses the ball high, but Koboli doesn’t rely on power for success. It could be a long game.
