The PGA Tour event that follows the British Open each year typically has one of the weakest fields of the season. That’s because all of the top players are resting after the last major and preparing for the FedExCup Playoffs. Another tournament in that unfortunate location this week is the 3M Open from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area. And while the field isn’t all that great, it does come as a pretty big surprise as world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be competing in this event for the first time. CBS and Paramount+ will air on weekends.
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Scheffler is a +260 favorite on DraftKings, but the event’s second favorite, defending champion Kurt Kitayama, is well below him at +2250. Typically, players like Scheffler don’t participate in these tournaments, so we don’t see much difference in odds. You see, there’s no other player in the top five that’s lower than +415 (Scheffler -154). Only five other players are above +265 in the top 10 (Scheffler -290).
Scheffler is the only world top-10 player in the field, and started the British Open tied for fourth, his 10th top-four finish this year. Although he only has one win left, in his season debut in January, Scheffler remains the tour leader in total strokes gained.
Not surprisingly, BetMGM has the Texans winning 44.1% of the handles and 11.0% of the tickets on its books, both of which are arguably the best, so the Texans have a pretty good chance of winning. That 44.1% number is ridiculous and 38.1% better than No. 2 Jackson Suber (+5000).
According to the Minnesota Star Tribune, Scheffler will be only the fifth No. 1 player in the world to play in a PGA Tour event in the state since the World Golf Rankings began in April 1986. None of the previous four had won. This tournament is through 2019, but Minnesota also hosts several major championships (Hazeltine).
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Speaking of major championships, New Zealand’s Ryan Fox, who won the British Open by surprise on Sunday, was originally scheduled to compete but withdrew. You can’t blame him as he celebrates his first major title. Major winners rarely play the following week. Only U.S. Open champion Windham Clark played this year. That’s because the following week’s Travelers Championship was nearby and was a major event.
No one has won back-to-back titles in this tournament since Kitayama finished last year with a score of 23-under 261, one place ahead of Sam Stevens. Kitayama shot a career-low and tournament-record tying 60 on Saturday, then shot a 65 on Sunday to play on the PGA Tour for the second time in his career. He hasn’t added a third place yet, but he’s had a pretty good season with four top-10 finishes.
Kitayama is the +1800 favorite to win in the “no Scheffler” market. He is one of four former tournament champions in the field, along with Lee Hodges, Tony Finau and Cameron Champ. Americans have won this event every year but one, and the American winner is a -295 favorite to be rejected by +220. There aren’t that many Europeans in this field, so +950 for Euro winner and -2200 for no.
His current record for consecutive appearances in PGA Tour tournaments is tied with Hideki Matsuyama’s record of 28 consecutive tournaments in Japan. He’s -300 by Friday and +2800 away from winning his first tour event since Sentry, which begins the 2025 campaign. Matsuyama has not competed in this tournament since finishing 30th in 2023.
TPC Twin Cities is an easy course where you’ll need at least 15 under to win based on past performance. It’s a par 71, 7,431 yard golf course located in Blaine, about 25 miles from Minneapolis-St. Paul. For some reason, there are still no playoffs in the tournament (three one-shot wins total), and the playoffs scheduled to take place this week are +400 and no is -650.
