Give yourself a pat on the back — after months of waiting, the first Sunday of the 2026 NFL regular season is finally here. Sure, there were a couple of midweek matchups already, but this is the real thing: no early alarm, no homework, just an entire day to sink into football. If you don’t have time to dig into every game, here are last-minute picks for Week 1, plus deeper looks at five games we like most. (All odds referenced are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Training-camp quarterback competitions are supposed to be settled by Week 1, but Deshaun Watson’s play this summer hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence even though he won the job over Shedeur Sanders. He’ll be tested by a Jaguars defense that finished 2025 hot and went 12-5 ATS, including covering their last eight regular-season games. Cleveland’s road ATS record the past two seasons (4-13) has been the worst in the league, and while the Browns have defensive talent, Jacksonville’s offense — now entering a second year with Trevor Lawrence working under Liam Coen — could be even more explosive. If the Jags build a lead and force Watson into predictable passing situations, players like Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker could make life difficult for Cleveland.
Projected score: Jaguars 30, Browns 17
Pick: Jaguars -8.5
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox; stream: Fubo)
Losing Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps was a big setback for Washington’s protection plans, and that could be magnified if Jonathan Greenard is healthy for Philadelphia. The Commanders also have to blend several new defensive pieces (Odafe Oweh, K’Lavon Chaisson, Sonny Styles), which might take time. Jayden Daniels has gone 1-7 ATS in his last eight road starts, too. The Eagles tend to start seasons strong — they were 5-0 in Week 1 heading into 2026 and 9-1 in their past 10 openers — and while they’ve changed coordinators and traded A.J. Brown, their offensive line is currently healthier and they remain dangerous.
Projected score: Eagles 30, Commanders 20
Pick: Eagles -6
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN; stream: Fubo)
It’s puzzling to see the Broncos still viewed behind the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West after reaching the AFC Championship last season — they only lost Bo Nix for the title game due to a fractured ankle. With Nix healthy and Jayden Waddle added, Denver looks complete and capable of making a statement in Arrowhead. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are starting Patrick Mahomes as he returns from torn ACL/LCL ligaments, and their tackle spots look shaky — Josh Simmons (back) and Jaylon Moore (inconsistent when asked to play more) present uncertainties. Facing a Broncos defense that has racked up a huge sack total the last two seasons could expose Kansas City’s offensive front.
Projected score: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Adding DJ Moore should help Josh Allen during the season, but in Week 1 the Texans look like a solid home underdog. Houston finished 2025 among the stingiest defenses in points and yards allowed, and with playmakers like Derek Stingley Jr., Will Anderson Jr., and Danielle Hunter, they can disrupt Buffalo’s passing game. Allen has not fared well on the road against Houston — 0-4 lifetime, averaging under 18 points and completing 52.8% of passes in those games — and Buffalo’s run defense was a major weakness last year. If the Texans establish a consistent ground game with David Montgomery and C.J. Stroud protects the football, they have a genuine upset chance.
Projected score: Texans 26, Bills 23
Pick: Texans +1.5
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
The Jets (5.5 win total) and Titans (6.5) both need early wins to reach season-over expectations, and I think New York is better positioned to do it. The Jets should improve on last year’s anemic passing numbers with Geno Smith behind a solid offensive line and weapons like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and they added veteran leadership on defense (Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick) plus rookie edge talent in David Bailey. Tennessee’s offseason changes — new head coach Robert Saleh, OC Brian Daboll, and multiple veteran additions — may require time to gel, and Cam Ward’s preseason was unimpressive. I expect the Jets to sneak out with a close road win.
Projected score: Jets 24, Titans 20
Pick: Jets +1.5
Other Week 1 picks
– Falcons at Steelers — Projected: Steelers 24, Falcons 17 — Pick: Steelers -6
– Ravens at Colts — Projected: Ravens 26, Colts 23 — Pick: Colts +3.5
– Bears at Panthers — Projected: Bears 27, Panthers 20 — Pick: Bears -3
– Saints at Lions — Projected: Lions 33, Saints 21 — Pick: Lions -7
– Buccaneers at Bengals — Projected: Bengals 30, Buccaneers 23 — Pick: Bengals -3.5
– Cardinals at Chargers — Projected: Chargers 27, Cardinals 20 — Pick: Cardinals +9.5
– Packers at Vikings — Projected: Vikings 24, Packers 20 — Pick: Vikings -1.5
– Dolphins at Raiders — Projected: Raiders 21, Dolphins 20 — Pick: Dolphins +3
– Cowboys at Giants — Projected: Giants 27, Cowboys 24 — Pick: Giants +3
Fan Take: These opening-week projections matter because they highlight early vulnerabilities — injuries, line issues, and matchup quirks — that can shape a team’s season trajectory. For fans, Week 1 is more than just a single slate of games; it’s the first real glimpse of whether offseason moves and coaching changes will translate into wins or expose deeper problems.
Source: www.cbssports.com
