As the 2026 MLB regular season nears its end, Friday’s games mark the second-to-last Friday slate, making this my next-to-final post on home run predictions for the year. Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies has launched 45 home runs, positioning himself as the favorite to claim the MLB home run title for the first time, and his third crown in the National League. Meanwhile, Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong, a strong contender for the NL MVP, trails closely with 44 homers. Despite Crow-Armstrong’s impressive tally, Schwarber is still favored at -400 overall to lead the league, although that number has shortened from -1800 just a few days ago.
When it comes to betting on home runs tonight, the Colorado Rockies take the field at hitter-friendly Coors Field with Gabriel Hughes on the mound, a pitcher struggling with an 0-8 record and a 6.37 ERA. Seattle’s lineup isn’t particularly alarming, and none of their hitters have faced Hughes before, making them less appealing for home run bets. Meanwhile, Cincinnati plays at Great American Ball Park, another favorable hitter’s stadium, but Cubs’ starter Clay Holmes and Reds’ Chase Burns promise a stronger pitching duel.
For those interested in MLB prop betting, DraftKings offers a $200 bonus on bets over $5 for new users. Over the past four seasons, my MLB picks have netted a profit of $1,681. You can check out more of my selections on SportsLine and engage with fellow bettors and experts in the exclusive SportsLine Discord community.
Last Friday’s home run picks were Austin Riley at +490 and Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio at +398. Riley hit a homer late in the seventh inning against the Phillies, but despite Milwaukee scoring 20 runs and Chourio getting four hits, none of those were homers. Remember, when I pick home runs, I also like betting the “over 1.5 total bases” odds available at top sports betting platforms.
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Top MLB Home Run Picks for Friday, Sept. 18
Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks (+630, DraftKings)
A crucial series begins tonight as the New York Yankees make their rare trip to Phoenix, with a 9:40 ET first pitch at Chase Field, which has a typically closed retractable roof ensuring no weather delays. This matchup hints at a possible World Series preview with the Yankees likely to secure a wild card spot in the AL, while Arizona battles San Diego for the NL’s last wildcard.
The first inning features a matchup between Yankees ace Gerrit Cole and Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado. Cole, a 2023 Cy Young Award winner, is battling injuries that have limited parts of the last two seasons, but he has posted moderate numbers this year with an 8-9 record and 3.67 ERA. He has allowed 20 home runs in 20 starts but appears to be wearing down, surrendering seven homers in his last two starts.
Arenado is a surefire Hall of Famer and one of the best third basemen in history, boasting 10 All-Star selections, eight Gold Gloves, five Silver Slugger Awards, and three NL home run titles. Now 35 and in his first season with Arizona, Arenado has hit 26 homers—the most since his 26 in 2023 with St. Louis—and 15 of those have come at home. He has a strong career record against Cole, batting .455 with three homers and two doubles in 22 at-bats, resulting in a slugging percentage near 1.000. For a longshot, consider the Diamondbacks’ catcher, James McCann, who has three homers off Cole in limited career at-bats.
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Mike Yastrzemski, Braves (+630, FanDuel)
The Braves head to Houston to face the Astros in a division leader showdown with an 8:10 ET start at Daikin Park, which usually has its retractable roof closed. While Atlanta is poised to win the NL East, Houston remains in a tight race with Texas for the AL West crown and risks missing the playoffs. Atlanta’s decision to rest ace Chris Sale hints they may not be fully pushing to secure the NL’s second seed and the first-round bye.
Braves outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has struggled this year, batting .228 with 10 home runs and a .377 slugging percentage, mainly serving in a platoon role starting against right-handed pitchers. He broke a 23-game power drought with a homer on Monday and holds a perfect 4-for-10 batting record against Houston’s righty Peter Lambert, including a double, triple, and homer. Lambert has given up 14 home runs this season.
Fan Take:
With the postseason looming, these home run matchups highlight key players who could shift momentum in tight playoff races, especially as veterans like Arenado continue to demonstrate clutch power. This insight not only excites fans but also emphasizes the strategic value of home run prop betting, offering a fresh way to engage with the sport’s thrilling finish.
Source: www.cbssports.com
