The New England Patriots return home to face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 20, with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET. New England is looking to rebound from a 13-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1, while Pittsburgh opened with a 20-13 win over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday.
FanDuel currently lists New England as a 4.5-point favorite with a 42.5 over/under. Money-line odds show the Patriots as the favorite and the Steelers as the underdog.
Patriots preview: New England finished 14-3 a season ago and reached the Super Bowl, but offensive line issues were exposed in the opener and last season’s title game — their QB was sacked several times in the big game. Drake Maye enjoyed a standout second season (4,394 passing yards, 31 TDs) and finished second in MVP voting, but he was pressured into three interceptions and took multiple sacks late against Seattle. Top offseason addition A.J. Brown will miss roughly six weeks with a high-ankle sprain, thrusting others like DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins into larger roles. Rhamondre Stevenson led the ground game (51 rushing yards in Week 1) and TreVeyon Henderson, who racked up 1,132 total yards last season, is listed as questionable after returning to practice Monday. Defensively, New England was strong in 2025, allowing just 18.8 points per game (fourth-best) and ranking among the top 10 in yards allowed.
Steelers preview: Pittsburgh finished 10-7 last season and lost in the Wild Card round, but they showed promise in Week 1 under Aaron Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy. T.J. Watt made the difference against Atlanta with a late pick-six and multiple sacks; Watt and Alex Highsmith combined for several QB takedowns and the unit batted down a number of passes. Atlanta leaned heavily on Bijan Robinson, who accumulated most of their offense against Pittsburgh, a luxury the Patriots don’t possess. Rodgers’ debut with the Steelers was modest by his standards (around 221 yards and a TD), with Michael Pittman and Pat Freiermuth leading the receiving corps; DK Metcalf had a couple of drops and the Pittsburgh running game was limited (58 yards). Last season the Steelers’ defense allowed more yards and points than New England’s, and their against-the-spread and over/under records differed, with Pittsburgh faring worse on the road.
Betting outlook and pick: SportsLine’s projection model simulates each game 10,000 times and finds New England winning about 57% of simulations, but it also shows Pittsburgh winning the money line in about 43% and covering the 4.5-point spread in roughly 56% of sims. Based on that model, the recommended play is Steelers +4.5.
Fan Take: This matchup matters because it’s an early stress test for New England’s offensive line and depth without A.J. Brown, and it highlights how a dominant pass rush (Watt) can swing close games. If Pittsburgh’s defense continues to create turnovers and Rodgers gets more comfortable with his weapons, it could shift AFC narratives and affect how bettors and teams view both clubs moving forward.
Source: www.cbssports.com
