This column’s been on a bit of a roll the last three slates — we’ve hit multiple TD scorers and nailed the Rams on Monday night (the Giants props were sunk by injuries to Jaxson Dart and others). Let’s keep that streak alive for what shapes up as a curious Thursday Night Football matchup between the Packers and Falcons.
The spread has moved sharply in recent days after a string of injury updates for both clubs. SportsLine subscribers were tipped to Falcons +7 as early as Monday, and that line will probably look even better by kickoff, so make sure you have alerts enabled if you follow their calls.
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Key injury/news nugget: Michael Penix Jr. has been cleared to start for Atlanta, and the team also reported improved depth at quarterback after another veteran was confirmed available Wednesday. Meanwhile, Green Bay has seen injuries pile up on its side of the ball.
Best bets for Thursday Night Football
Falcons +4.5
On the surface, Atlanta has been the worst team through two weeks — no red-zone snaps yet, torched at home by Carolina, and just one touchdown in 120 minutes (a 23-yard Bijan Robinson score on a Cooper Rush throw). That said, the recent quarterback chaos has been a big part of their struggles; with Penix back under center and more experienced options behind him, the Falcons’ passing game should get a lift. If they win Thursday and things break right over the weekend, Atlanta could conceivably be tied for first in the division heading into Week 4 — unlikely but not impossible. They could also get beaten badly, but a closely contested game where they claw back is just as plausible.
Player props
Drake London — Over 65.5 receiving yards
Atlanta’s offensive woes have mostly stemmed from instability at quarterback, and Drake London has been especially invisible with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand taking snaps. Penix’s arrival should significantly raise London’s target share; Penix is fighting for his job and will lean on his top receiver. Expect London to see enough opportunities to clear this number.
Chris Brooks — Over 6.5 receiving yards (-111, BetMGM)
Brooks looks like he’s getting work on passing downs in a Packers offense that hasn’t settled on a consistent rotation. You don’t need much here — a single swing pass or a short dump-off on third-and-long will do.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Drake London (+185, DraftKings)
This is a correlated play with the yardage bet above. With Penix more likely to target London and defenses focused on stopping Bijan Robinson near the goal line, London should see red-zone looks — he’s a strong threat inside the 20 when he gets chances.
Christian Watson (+145, DraftKings)
Watson’s deep-threat ability was one reason he was popular in fantasy drafts, but he also showed savvy in the red area last week when he ran a slot route, sold a fade and then crossed to the back of the end zone, wide open for Jordan Love. He’s a versatile scoring option Love will go to near the goal line, especially if the run game isn’t doing enough.
Fan Take: Quarterback availability and depth matter in ways that go beyond one game — a single clearance or return can swing betting lines, fantasy values and division races overnight. Fans and bettors should pay close attention to late injury news this week because it will likely decide not just Thursday’s outcome, but several teams’ trajectories heading into the rest of the season.
Source: www.cbssports.com
