Among the championship hopefuls, Kyle Larson stands out as the clear frontrunner, boasting two wins in the first four races of The Chase. His dominant performance and maximum points haul at Kansas last Sunday have created a significant points gap between him and most competitors.
Only three drivers remain within one race’s points difference (76 points), meaning even some top-10 drivers have slim chances of claiming the title. Below are my rankings for the contenders as we approach the fifth race of The Chase, scheduled for next Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. For those with at least a remote shot at the championship, I’ll also provide a brief outlook for Vegas.
On The Fringe (Alphabetically):
- Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford, -186 points): A 23rd place finish in Kansas, hampered by crash damage early in Stage 2, has left him with only a mathematical chance at the title.
- William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet, -158 points): Despite a solid seventh-place finish and nine stage points, Byron trails teammate Larson by more than two full races.
- Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet, -161 points): A disappointing eighth place with just three stage points at Kansas dealt a severe blow to his championship hopes.
- Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet, -150 points): An early crash at Stage 2 nearly ended Hocevar’s title aspirations.
- Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford, -173 points): Finishing 10th at Kansas, Preece’s focus should now shift to securing consistent top-10 finishes.
- Daniel Suárez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet, -187 points): Although he placed 14th in Kansas, Suárez had the joy of returning home to his newborn son.
Contender Rankings:
10. Austin Cindric — Cindric secured second place and earned 17 stage points at Kansas but still fell 24 points behind Larson. At this point, aiming for a top-10 finish in the standings seems realistic. However, he has never cracked the top five at Las Vegas and placed 19th there in the spring race.
9. Bubba Wallace — Wallace overcame damage from an early wreck to finish ninth, but earning no stage points cost him 48 points to Larson and effectively ended his title chase. His best Vegas finish is one career top five, with a ninth place in the spring.
8. Tyler Reddick — After making several changes, Reddick finished 11th, losing 50 points to Larson. While he has two top-five and five top-10 results in nine Next Gen races at Las Vegas, he placed 13th in the spring.
7. Ty Gibbs — Gibbs’ 17th place at Kansas fell short of the top-10 finish he needed to keep pace. His best at Vegas is two fifth-place finishes, including the last spring race.
6. Ryan Blaney — Finishing fifth in Kansas was solid, but Blaney lost 39 points to Larson. To close the gap, he’ll need some wins and favorable outcomes from others. He has one Next Gen top-five at Vegas (a third in 2024) and was 16th in the spring.
5. Joey Logano — Coming off a win at Bristol, Logano struggled to 20th after a late tire issue, losing 51 points to Larson. However, Vegas is a strong track for him, holding two Next Gen wins, though his recent finishes there include a 15th, sixth, and 15th.
4. Chase Briscoe — Despite a fourth-place finish at Kansas, Briscoe has almost no championship chances, losing 36 points to Larson. Still, his strong intermediate-track speed could net wins. At Vegas, he’s solid, with a fourth and eighth in his last two starts.
3. Christopher Bell — Bell took sixth at Kansas, losing 33 points, but remains a contender with win potential alongside teammates Briscoe and Hamlin. At Vegas, he boasts four poles and three top-fives in his last four races, including a third and a fourth-place finish.
2. Denny Hamlin — Though behind, Hamlin is far from out after a third-place finish at Kansas and a 25-point gap. With back-to-back wins at Vegas and a dominant spring race performance (leading 134 laps), he is a favorite heading into Sunday’s race, poised to make a pivotal championship push.
- Kyle Larson — A two-time winner in the last three races, Larson knows the lead can vanish quickly but also that he’s narrowed the championship field considerably. Excelling at Vegas, Larson has two wins and a second-place finish in nine Next Gen races there, plus strong recent performances including a second-place last year and a seventh place finish in the spring.
Fan Take: Kyle Larson’s commanding lead and consistent excellence are thrilling for NASCAR fans, as they set the stage for a captivating championship battle. With strong contenders like Hamlin and Bell capable of striking back, the upcoming Las Vegas race promises intense competition and could significantly reshape the title landscape.
Source: www.foxsports.com
