Each year, I review the performance of every player on the Blue Jays roster. On December 2nd last year, we signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal worth $210 million. While some baseball analysts labeled this the worst free-agent signing of the offseason, their judgment seems off given Cease’s current performance.
When asked about the signing, 42.9% of fans said they were “Kind of Happy,” 41.8% said “Very Happy,” and just 5.1% expressed dissatisfaction. Cease spent the previous two seasons with the Padres, showing strong numbers in 2024 with a 3.47 ERA and a 4.0 bWAR, though his 2025 season was less impressive with a 4.55 ERA and 1.0 bWAR. The Jays appeared to believe they could improve him, and contrary to my usual skepticism, their faith seems justified.
According to Baseball-Reference, Cease posted a 5.7 WAR this year, while FanGraphs valued him at 5.5 WAR and estimated his worth to the Blue Jays at $43.9 million. His advanced pitching stats were solid, with a 2.56 FIP and 2.93 xFIP. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) dropped to .274 from .320 the previous year, and he stranded an impressive 77.8% of base runners, up from 69.0%.
Cease’s contact metrics also improved: line drive rate decreased from 21.8% to 20.4%, groundball rate went up from 36.6% to 42.1%, and fly ball rate dropped from 41.5% to 37.5%, with fewer fly balls leaving the park (8.1% this year vs. 11.9% last year). His strikeout rate increased to 34.9% from 29.8%, though walks rose slightly from 9.8% to 11.4%. He induced more soft contact (21.6% vs. 17.2%) and allowed less hard contact (29.0% vs. 33.8%).
Interestingly, Cease performed better against left-handed batters (.167/.267/.271) than right-handed ones (.198/.289/.270), which contrasts with his overall career trend. He was also more effective on the road, recording a 1.94 ERA compared to 2.85 at home, and pitched better in the second half of the season.
Month by month, Cease showed consistency and improvement:
- April: 6 starts, 1-1 record, 2.87 ERA, with 0 home runs allowed.
- May: 5 starts, 2-2, 3.23 ERA, 5 homers allowed.
- June: 4 starts, 1-1, 2.95 ERA, 0 home runs allowed.
- July: 5 starts, 3-1, outstanding 1.00 ERA.
- August: 5 starts, 2-0, 2.03 ERA.
- September: 4 starts, 2-1, 2.89 ERA.
During his starts, the Jays went 18-11, averaging 4.56 runs per game with 11 games scoring three or fewer runs. Regarding rest, Cease had his best stats with five days off (5-1 record, 1.96 ERA) and surprisingly remained effective even with varying rest periods. Catcher Brandon Valenzuela caught nine of his games, during which Cease posted an impressive 1.43 ERA.
Cease’s effectiveness remained steady through multiple trips in the opposing lineup, holding batters to modest averages, and he excelled with runners in scoring position, holding them to a .200 average. His highest GameScore performance was a dominant nine-inning, one-hit outing with 12 strikeouts in Boston on July 25, with another strong 8-inning start later that month in San Francisco. His weakest game was a short, rough outing on September 18.
He averaged 5.8 innings per start and pitched 169 innings on the year, a slight decrease from the 189 innings he threw in 2024, though different workloads bring different challenges. Overall, Cease had an excellent season to start his long contract, even if his performance waned slightly toward the end. He is clearly slated as the team’s opening-day starter next year. With about 77% of his outs coming from strikeouts or ground balls, it’s been a very successful campaign.
I’m not overly concerned about what appeared to be arm fatigue late in the season, as that’s common and wouldn’t raise alarms unless surgery is needed. Preseason projections anticipated 32 starts, 185 innings, a 3.61 ERA, 12-10 record, and 3.8 fWAR. While the innings pitched target was a bit high, his ERA and WAR exceeded expectations.
According to Baseball Savant, Cease’s fastball velocity was slightly down to 96.8 mph from 97.1 last year, but it was hit less hard. His slider velocity increased a bit, and hitters performed worse against it compared to the previous season. His pitch mix shifted somewhat, throwing fewer four-seamers and sliders but more change-ups and sinkers.
Before the season, 33.81% of fans correctly predicted he would pitch under 180 innings, and 52.9% expected him to accumulate more than 77 wins over his contract. Regarding the opening-day starter, most predicted it would be Gausman, but 9.3% picked Cease.
Fan Take: Dylan Cease’s breakout season shows the Blue Jays’ scouting and development work paid off, underscoring the value of investing boldly in free agents. For baseball fans, this signifies how strategic player adjustments can transform careers and shift team futures, potentially impacting how teams approach free agency and player development moving forward.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
