Goodbye, September — happily so. With this week’s slate ushering in October, it’s time to move on from my disappointing September picks.
Last week I went 8-8 straight up and 6-9-1 against the spread, leaving me 29-19 overall SU and a rough 21-26-1 ATS for the season. I’m glad October is here — the next couple of weeks usually reveal who’s for real and who’s not, which should make picking easier. The immediate aim: get back over .500 ATS, then act like a contender.
All lines via DraftKings; all times ET.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5) — Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
This AFC North matchup matters more than usual with both teams 2-1. The Steelers looked sharp beating Cincinnati, but Cleveland has been a pleasant surprise at home. I’ll take the upset: Browns 21, Steelers 20.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (+3.5) — London, Sunday 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (stream: Fubo)
Both teams picked up their first wins last week. The Colts’ defense showed signs of improvement while Washington made timely plays. Expect a shootout, but Indianapolis pulls it out late: Colts 31, Commanders 30.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Pats travel again after a rough outing in Jacksonville and Drake Maye looks out of sync. Josh Allen bounces back from a so-so performance and Buffalo reasserts itself: Bills 30, Patriots 17.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
The Jets are on the road again and the Bears are coming off a short week after Monday’s rout of Philly. Tyson Bagent appears likely to start for Chicago; the Bears keep rolling to 3-1: Bears 23, Jets 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Cincinnati returns home after back-to-back road games and a loss to Pittsburgh. Jacksonville thumped New England, but facing Joe Burrow’s passing attack is a tougher test. The Bengals get this one: Bengals 23, Jaguars 17.
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants
The Giants managed little offensively in a win over Tennessee in nasty weather. Arizona did some positive things versus San Francisco and should handle a lesser foe here: Cardinals 24, Giants 21.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (+3) — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
Both teams stumbled last week — Philly looked terrible against Chicago, and the Rams blew one in Denver. After the tough loss, I expect a refocused Eagles team to edge it at home: Eagles 30, Rams 27.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
Both clubs have issues, and the Bucs will be without Baker Mayfield, meaning rookie Jalen Daniels could start. That rookie test is tough; Jordan Love and Green Bay get the win: Packers 27, Bucs 21.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
This one feels like revenge for Derrick Henry, who left Tennessee a few seasons ago. The Titans’ offense looks flat and they’re on the road again — expect a blowout: Ravens 33, Titans 14.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
The Cowboys have the unfortunate travel schedule after the Brazil trip and their loss to Baltimore. The Texans, still 0-3, have improved defensively and are at home; that defense will be the difference: Texans 24, Cowboys 18.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
A tough road test for Miami against a stingy Minnesota defense coached by Brian Flores, who’ll be highly motivated. With De’Von Achane out, Miami’s offense loses a weapon — look for turnovers and a comfortable Vikings win: Vikings 27, Dolphins 10.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Two unbeaten teams face off in what should be an entertaining AFC rivalry game. Patrick Mahomes has a big day and the Chiefs keep rolling: Chiefs 29, Raiders 24.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
One of the week’s best matchups: the Broncos rode a comeback last week while the 49ers are 3-0 behind Brock Purdy. I think San Francisco stays perfect with Purdy having a big game: 49ers 28, Broncos 21.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
The Chargers are 0-3 after a long trip and loss to Buffalo; Seattle is coming off an upset loss that should refocus them. Expect the Seahawks’ defense to pressure Justin Herbert and make plays: Seahawks 30, Chargers 20.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers — Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (stream: Fubo)
The Panthers are beaten up and Bryce Young is banged up, while Detroit just outscored the Jets in a shootout. Jared Goff and the Lions continue to produce on the road: Lions 31, Panthers 26.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) at New Orleans Saints — Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (stream: Fubo)
Atlanta impressed in a Thursday blowout of Green Bay with Michael Penix back at QB, and they’ll continue feeding Bijan Robinson. The Saints will answer, but this turns into a high-scoring close one — Falcons prevail: Falcons 33, Saints 30.
Fan Take: October’s early games start to separate true contenders from pretenders, so these picks matter for playoff trajectories and team morale. Fans should watch closely — a few surprising results now could reshape division races and long-term storylines around coaches, quarterbacks and roster building.
Source: www.cbssports.com
