Week 4 is the last full slate of 16 NFL games before byes begin in Week 5. The league’s first London showdown this season pits the Colts against the Commanders, with Indianapolis listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Sunday’s schedule includes just two divisional matchups — Patriots at Bills (Buffalo favored by 6.5) and Chiefs at Raiders (Oakland listed plus-4.5) — while Monday’s game is a divisional meeting as well: the Saints are 2.5-point favorites over the Falcons in a game that also marks the 20th anniversary of New Orleans’ 2006 “Domecoming.”
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For bettors, two heavy favorites stand out. Baltimore is a massive 11.5-point favorite over the struggling, winless Titans, and Minnesota is favored by 10.5 points against 0-3 Miami. SportsLine’s computer model — which runs each matchup 10,000 times — has released betting picks for every Week 4 game. The model claims a long-term edge: it reports more than $7,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated picks since it started, and it’s 54-43 on top picks dating back to 2024.
Among the model’s top Week 4 calls: the Giants (+1.5, total 44.5) are expected to cover against the Cardinals in Sunday’s early window. The Cardinals’ Week 1 victory over the Chargers has looked less impressive as Arizona has since allowed 31-plus points in two straight losses and is just 5-9 against the spread following a defeat dating to last year. The Giants lead the league in offensive time of possession and are strong in starting field position on defense; the model sees slight value on New York to cover and projects the Over to land about 56% of the time.
Another highlighted pick is the Seahawks (-7, total 42.5) to cover versus the Chargers. Los Angeles forced five turnovers in its loss to Buffalo but remains mired in a six-game losing streak — scoring 17 points or fewer in each loss — while Seattle, despite a recent end to a 12-game streak, gets back home after a long trip and has not lost in Seattle in a year. The model points to Justin Herbert’s recent turnover issues (10 TDs vs. 11 turnovers over his last 10 games) and forecasts Seattle to cover in nearly 60% of simulations, with the Over hitting in over 60%.
The model also provides predicted winners and spreads for every Week 4 matchup and identifies five teams projected to win by double digits, which could be useful for alternate-line bettors. For the full slate of picks and detailed recommendations, SportsLine has the complete computer-model analysis.
Fan Take: These model-based projections matter because they distill large amounts of data into actionable betting advice, helping fans and bettors spot edges they might otherwise miss. As analytics and simulations play a bigger role in pregame preparation and wagering, expect such tools to shape not only betting markets but also casual conversations about team strengths and expectations.
Source: www.cbssports.com
